Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
820 FXUS62 KKEY 271027 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 627 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Just before midnight last night, Tropical Storm Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida as a Category 4 Major Hurricane and pushed north quickly into Georgia, but we are still seeing some influence from the system here in the Florida Keys. Most of the wind gust observations over the past couple of hours along the island chain have been anywhere from 20 to 30 mph, but these numbers will trend lighter throughout the day as Helene`s influence on our area continues to diminish. Individual showers along a band over the western waters are moving northeasterly at roughly 30 knots, and we have been watching the motion of the whole band crawl eastward toward the Lower Keys since last night. Since it has been able to maintain its composure for hours on end, island communities are likely to see this rainfall move through eventually this morning. As Helene is pulled northward, it will interact with another low pressure system that is centered somewhere over western Tennessee. Model guidance has depicted what can only be described as a dance between the two systems over the next couple of days, but this wont directly affect us here at home. What this will do is allow for some ridging to build in, giving us the opportunity to see some quieter weather conditions after we get past today. As this ridging builds in, expect the return of warmer and muggy weather and precipitation chances of 20 to 30 percent. Approaching the middle of next week, there are some isolated indications that there may be some unsettled weather conditions. It is important to note that hurricane season has not left the building yet, and this unsettled weather is showing up on forecast models eight days from now. There is virtually zero confidence with respect to what our sensible weather will look like near the end of next week, so we will continue to broad brush relatively quiet weather with hot and muggy afternoons and a chance for showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, strong southerly breezes will slacken rapidly today and tonight as Tropical Storm Helene continues to push farther inland across the southern U.S. High pressure building back in to the region will help breezes slacken further and shift easterly over the weekend, and into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Southwest winds will continue to diminish as Hurricane Helene accelerates to the north. Radar trends suggest the high chances for rain suggested by MOS guidance is not reasonable. We removed VCSH at 06Z to account for this discrepancy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 88 83 91 84 / 70 50 30 20 Marathon 89 82 92 83 / 70 50 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for FLZ076. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest