655
FXUS66 KLOX 261756
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1056 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...26/825 AM.

The May gray pattern will continue through this week. Varying
amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog are expected for
the coast and valleys. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will
prevail. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees below
normal into early this week then warm to near normal to a few
degrees above normal for mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...26/821 AM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion early this morning ranged from around 1600
ft deep at VBG to around 3400 ft deep at LAX. Low clouds covered
much of the coast and vlys up to the lower cstl slopes S of Pt
Conception this morning, while over SLO/SBA Counties low clouds
were noted mainly over SW SLO County and the SBA County Central
Coast to the Santa Ynez Vly and cstl slopes. The low clouds are
expected to clear back to or off the coast by early this
afternoon, with Catalina Island probably remaining mostly cloudy
for the most part. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly sunny skies
will prevail thru this afternoon.

Temps today are forecast to turn a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, but still remain 4-8 deg below seasonal norms for most
areas. Afternoon highs for the inland coast, vlys and lower mtns
should reach the 70s to near 80, except lower 80s in the Antelope
Vly.

Strong onshore pressure gradients will help to bring gusty NW
winds over SW SBA County thru this afternoon, with gusty W-NW
winds for the Antelope Vly into the foothills and I- 5 Corridor.
Winds are expected to be mostly sub-Advisory thru this afternoon.
Elsewhere, breezy to gusty SW-NW winds can be expected this
afternoon.

***From Previous Discussion***

Forecast thoughts remain relatively unchanged. Building 500 mb
heights will lead to a warm up through Monday or Tuesday with
unabated onshore flow and marine layer presence, effectively
limiting the warm up near the coast. Forecast confidence of low
cloud coverage remains low today, but the low cloud pattern should
become more persistent and therefore easier to forecast by
Tuesday thanks to the warming trends above the marine layer,
establishing a stronger inversion.

Daytime highs only in the 60s will prevail nearest the coast,
inland coastal areas and valleys will peak in the 70s to low 80s
with 80s to near 90 for the far interior.

Breezy northwest to onshore winds will continue through this
period with a 10-20 percent chance of reaching advisory levels at
times across the far interior and southwest Santa Barbara County.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...26/346 AM.

Moderate forecast confidence for Wednesday and beyond as the
timing of weak trough/ridge systems becomes challenging to nail
down. However, weather related impacts should be minimal,
especially for coastal areas where the marine layer will continue
to dominate. Daytime highs will likely be mid 60s to mid 70s for
most coastal areas, mid 70s to mid 80s for coastal valleys, and
80s to near 90 for the far interior. Breezy northwest to onshore
flow will continue unabated, peaking each afternoon to evening.
There is a 30-50 percent chance of reaching advisory level winds
for far interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County as early
as Tuesday evening, but more likely into Wednesday. The uptick of
northwest winds may support a stronger Catalina Eddy Wednesday or
Thursday, which could send low clouds and fog as far inland as
the lower mountain slopes and cut about 5 degrees off of the
daytime highs for coastal valleys of Los Angeles and perhaps
Ventura Counties.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1755Z.

At 1738Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 5600 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs and low confidence in
coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites due
to uncertainties in the behavior of the marine layer stratus.
Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 4 hours (greatest
uncertainty after 03Z Mon) and CIGs will range between IFR/MVFR
levels. KBUR and KVNY have a 30% chance of remaining VFR after
21Z. Upon return tonight (after 00Z Mon), there is a 30% chance of
IFR CIGs for sites south of Point Conception, and LIFR conds for
KSBP and KSMX.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could
be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a 30% chance of BKN008 conds at
times upon return tonight. No significant easterly wind component
is expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could
be off by +/- 4 hours. There is a 40% chance of conds remaining
VFR after 21Z, and a 30% chance of BKN008 cigs at times tonight.

&&

.MARINE...26/828 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in forecast.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
are expected to continue through this weekend and much of next
week through Thursday. Winds may drop below advisory levels
during the morning and early afternoon hours Monday. There is a
30-40% chance of Gale Force winds Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. As for seas, starting Tuesday morning seas will build to
SCA levels and becoming steep and choppy through at least Thursday
night.

Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA level
winds are expected to last into the evening across the western
portions of the waters. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds
again during the afternoon/evening hours on Monday. Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday, SCA level winds and seas are likely
(60-70%), with a 20-30% chance of Gale Force winds.

Across the southern inner waters, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
level winds across the western portion of the Channel each
afternoon and evening through Tuesday, followed by a 50% chance on
Wednesday. South of the Channel Islands, winds are expected to
remain below SCA levels through at least Wednesday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Sirard
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox