Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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224 FXUS62 KMLB 171507 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1107 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A steady stream of high clouds are being steered southeastward across the peninsula this morning, along with low level cumulus. The 10z XMR sounding indicates a stout dry layer above 700mb, keeping most of the marine shower activity to a minimum. Still, a passing light sprinkle or shower cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast. Temperatures were nudged up a degree or so in most areas for afternoon highs, as were wind speeds, to account for persistent onshore flow. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible at the coast, reaching 20-25 mph elsewhere. A moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches, so always swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy easterly winds today increasing to around 15kts this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 25kts are forecast, especially along the coast. These winds will carry isolated, light showers onshore through the day, though coverage is forecast to be too low to include VCSH in the TAF at any site. However, the highest chance for seeing a shower or two will be at coastal locations. && .MARINE... Issued at 524 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Today-Tonight...Deteriorating sea and boating conditions. Expect breezy onshore flow, with wind speeds generally around 15-20 KT, especially across the offshore Treasure Coast waters. Winds will increase to 15-20 KT across all the waters, except nearshore Volusia, tonight. Small craft should exercise caution in these waters as winds become 15-20 KT. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet, increasing to 5 ft in the Gulf stream waters overnight. Isolated showers through the period, with isolated lightning storms possible this afternoon and evening. Tuesday-Friday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow will persist through the period , with winds generally 15-20 KT through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the offshore waters Wednesday/Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft on Wednesday, and 7-10 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed across the offshore waters starting Tuesday, and expanding to all the waters on Wednesday. Increasing rain and storm chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and lightning storms remaining possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 76 87 75 / 20 20 30 30 MCO 89 75 87 75 / 10 20 40 20 MLB 88 77 88 77 / 20 30 40 30 VRB 89 76 87 76 / 20 20 40 40 LEE 91 75 90 75 / 10 10 20 10 SFB 90 74 89 74 / 10 20 30 20 ORL 90 75 89 75 / 10 20 40 20 FPR 88 76 87 75 / 20 20 40 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Leahy