386
FXUS62 KMLB 110553
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
153 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Generally VFR conditions become MVFR at most sites beyond 12z.
VCSH looks most probable thru this time as well, with a gradual
uptick in SHRA/VCTS 12z-15z and beyond. IFR CIG/VIS is possible
due to pockets of heavier RA and isolated TSRA, with decreasing
TS/VCTS coverage 21z-00z. Winds remain 10-12 kt with gusts 15-20
kt thru the day, gradually veering from SSW to S by 21z. Lower
confidence in SHRA exists after 00z, though the highest chances
appear to be from MLB southward. This is handled by VCSH until
confidence increases in lower rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop on lingering outflow
boundaries from earlier convection as of around 930pm. Locally
heavy rainfall has already been observed over portions of
northeastern Orange and southeastern Seminole Counties, where
rainfall totals have reached up to 5-5.5" in some spots.

Rain chances will continue overnight, with CAMs supporting
repeated rounds of showers, with embedded lightning storms. PoPs
overnight generally 40-60%, with the highest coverage expected
south of Orlando. A brief lull in activity will be possible after
midnight, before coverage increases once again towards daybreak.
Gusty winds and lightning strikes will remain possible in any
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat in areas
that see multiple rounds of showers and storms or persistent
cells, as has been the case in Orange and Seminole Counties this
evening. Precipitation and high cloud cover will keep overnight
lows in the lower to mid-70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tonight...Poor boating conditions offshore this evening, as
southerly winds increase up to 15-20 knots, mainly offshore of
Volusia and Brevard counties. Otherwise, wind speeds 10-15 knots
as they veer to the southwest overnight. Seas 2-3 feet. Scattered
to numerous offshore moving showers and storms will continue
through this evening, with a few stronger storms possible.

Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Pattern remains
fairly static through Friday. SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly
Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as
high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. Winds speeds increase
up to 15-20 knots into Tuesday night, but otherwise will
generally range from 10-15 knots. High rain chances through the
period with rounds of SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms. High
cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze.
Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, increasing up to 2-4 ft
Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as
greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the
mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will
keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of
drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive
heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning
strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that
could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  87  73 /  80  60  80  60
MCO  84  74  86  74 /  90  70  90  70
MLB  85  74  85  74 /  90  80  90  70
VRB  85  73  86  73 /  90  80  90  80
LEE  87  76  89  75 /  80  60  80  60
SFB  86  74  88  74 /  80  60  80  60
ORL  84  75  87  75 /  90  60  90  60
FPR  84  73  86  73 /  90  80  90  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper