570
FXUS62 KMLB 221124
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
724 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Will continue with VCSH today as lightning storm chances appear to
be < 20%. VFR, except for near showers where brief categorical
restrictions to MVFR/IFR occur. Lt/Vrb winds become NE 5-15 KT
after 15Z, with gusts to 20 KT esp. along the coast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES:

- Minor coastal flooding remains possible into early this
  afternoon around high tide. Low-lying streets, yards, and docks
  along the barrier islands and Intracoastal Waterway may
  experience minor flooding.

- There is a high chance (70%) for tropical development in the
  northwest Caribbean this week. It is too early to determine
  what, if any, impacts this may bring to East Central Florida.
  Continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

Today-Tonight...We begin astronomical fall with high pressure
over the Deep South drifting eastward through the day today.
Northeasterly flow will advect a wave of moisture into the Florida
peninsula, though PWATs look to remain below 2". Isolated to
scattered showers present over the local Atlantic waters will
drift onshore this morning. Then, as the east coast sea breeze
develops and pushes inland this afternoon, PoPs 20-30% are
forecast over the interior, especially south of Orlando. A few
lightning storms cannot be ruled out. However, a very shallow
layer of moisture due to dry air aloft and warm 500mb temperatures
(around -4C) will work to limit available CAPE and storm chances.
High temperatures this afternoon will be moderated by onshore
flow around 10-15mph, reaching the upper 80s along the coast and
near 90 inland.

Any showers or storms are forecast to diminish or push into the
western half of the peninsula by late afternoon, with drier
conditions by around sunset. Lingering moisture south of Cape
Canaveral will continue the chance of a few showers along and
offshore from the Brevard and Treasure Coasts overnight. PoPs up
to 20% for the coastal counties, with no mentionable PoPs
elsewhere. Overnight low temperatures in the mid-70s, though
onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the upper 70s.

Monday-Tuesday...High pressure continues to drift offshore of the
Carolinas through the period. Meanwhile, a trough begins to dig
through the upper mid-west, with a cutoff mid-level low developing
around Tuesday night in the Great Lakes region. Locally, PoPs
continue to decrease, as drier air is advected into the Florida
peninsula by easterly flow. Isolated to scattered showers, with a
few lightning storms, lingers Monday, though PoPs 20-30% have been
confined to areas south of Kissimmee. PWATs are forecast to fall
below 1.5" Tuesday, with just a 20% chance lingering along and
inland from the Treasure Coast. In addition to dry air advection,
a mid level high moves into the area through the period, warming
500mb temperatures to as warm as -3C. Thus, overall convection
will be quite limited early this week. Lower cloud cover will
allow for temperatures to creep up into the lower 90s across the
interior, while coastal areas remain in the upper 80s to near 90.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Wednesday-The Weekend...There is considerable uncertainty in the
remainder of the forecast. The aforementioned cutoff low looks to
pass through the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through the
eastern US. Local weather during this timeframe will be dependent
on the speed and location of this feature, as it will affect the
timing and track of a tropical disturbance forecast to develop in
the northwest Caribbean mid to late week. The National Hurricane
Center has given this disturbance a 70% chance of tropical
formation over the next 7 days. Models differ on the timing and
track of this system, but residents and visitors should stay up to
date on the latest forecast. It is still too early to discuss
specific impacts, if any, this system could bring to east central
Florida. However, deeper moisture looks to return to the local
area late week and possibly into the weekend, with increasing
shower and storm chances.

We are in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov
for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane
preparedness kits and plans.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Today-Tuesday...High pressure over the Deep South today drifts
eastward into the Atlantic via the Carolina coast through the
period. Northeast winds today veer onshore through Tuesday. Winds
10-15kts each day, especially in the afternoon hours, as the sea
breeze develops. Isolated to scattered lightning storms will
decrease through early this week, though at least a 20% chance
will linger over the Treasure Coast waters. Seas 3-4ft, with up to
5ft possible well offshore north of Cape Canaveral into this
afternoon.

Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the
forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther
eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 70%
chance of formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf
of Mexico. Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of
this system. While it to too early to discuss what, if any
impacts, this could bring to the east central Florida waters,
boating conditions look to deteriorate into late week, as
southeasterly winds increase and seas build. Shower and lightning
storm chances will increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on
the latest forecast for any changes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  74  90  74 /  20   0  10   0
MCO  90  74  92  74 /  30   0  10   0
MLB  88  77  89  77 /  20  20  20  10
VRB  89  75  89  75 /  20  20  20  10
LEE  91  73  92  74 /  20   0  10   0
SFB  89  73  91  73 /  30   0  10   0
ORL  90  75  92  74 /  30   0  10   0
FPR  89  74  89  75 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141-
     154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil