Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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886 FXUS62 KMLB 231739 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 139 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Another afternoon of showers and storms are forecast across east central Florida, particularly across the interior terminals and MLB northward along the coast. VCTS ongoing with TEMPOs from 18-23Z today, with MVFR VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Activity will begin to diminish after 00Z, with quiet conditions across the Treasure Coast terminals and lingering VCSH at the remaining coastal and interior terminals through 06Z. ESE winds this afternoon will become southerly and variable overnight. Winds pick back up out of the SW across the interior and at DAB and TIX, with the sea breeze developing around 15Z from MLB southward, making winds easterly. VCSH will be possible along the sea breeze from MLB southward after 15Z, with increasing shower and storm coverage forecast as the ECSB progresses inland tomorrow afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1031 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Current KMLB radar imagery shows scattered showers and isolated lightning storms over the local Atlantic. Current temperatures are in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This morning`s 10Z XMR skew-t sounding indicates ample moisture in place with a PWAT values of 2.10", as well as mid and low RH at 80%, in addition to moderate instability with surface CAPE at 2507 J/kg and weak 0-6km shear at 12kts. There`s less certainty in today`s forecast with differences in how much coverage of showers and lightning storms there will be into this afternoon. The HRRR continues to be inconsistent indicating little convection developing to scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms this afternoon. However, the previously mentioned weather parameters and a similar pattern to yesterday is likely to continue above normal coverage of showers and lightning storms this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into this afternoon as boundary collisions occur between the east coast sea breeze and the weaker west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms with the greatest chance for showers and storms along and west of I-4, as well as the western interior (PoPs ~ 60-70%). Weak wind fields will result in slow moving storms with locally heavy rainfall (1-3" in a short period of time). Additionally, lightning storms will have the potential to produce wind gusts up to 30-35mph and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. South to southeast winds are forecast this afternoon at 5-15mph as the east coast sea breeze moves inland into this afternoon with the exception of the western interior where a winds will be south-southwest into this afternoon. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values in the 98-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote south to southeast winds across the local waters. Seas of 3 ft gradually subside to 2 ft into Monday night. Scattered to numerous lightning storms are forecast. Tuesday-Thursday...Light southwest to west flow develops over the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 93 76 93 / 40 70 20 60 MCO 74 93 76 92 / 50 70 20 70 MLB 74 91 75 91 / 40 70 30 70 VRB 74 90 75 91 / 40 60 20 60 LEE 76 94 77 94 / 40 70 20 70 SFB 75 94 76 94 / 40 70 20 70 ORL 75 93 77 93 / 40 70 20 70 FPR 73 90 74 91 / 40 70 20 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Tollefsen