027
FXUS62 KMLB 231137
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
737 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Atlc ridge axis is draped across central FL which will produce a
light southerly flow less than 10 knots, turning SE around 10
knots at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze this aftn. SCT
SHRA/TSRA should develop with the sea breeze with highest coverage
over northern/interior terminals later this aftn into the eve
(KDAB/KSFB/KMCO/KLEE). These TAFs will have a TEMPO for MVFR conds
in TSRA roughly 19Z-23Z with VCSH persisting past sunset. The
last several runs of the HRRR model have not been excited about
diurnal convection but think it is underdoing the coverage. Have
less confidence for TEMPO group at MLB-SUA so will maintain
liberal usage of VCSH/VCTS there.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today-Monday...GOES-16 PWAT analysis indicates a distinct moisture
boundary across northeast Florida stretching from Cedar Key through
southeast Georgia. Deep moisture continues to reside south of this
boundary with PWATs observed between 2-2.2" across much of the
peninsula. High coverage of showers and storms is forecast each
afternoon (60-70%) dominantly driven by diurnal heating and
mesoscale boundaries. Poor mid-level lapse rates and minimal wind
shear will aid in limiting overall storm intensity. Periods of heavy
rainfall and occasional to frequent lightning strikes continue to
remain the primary hazards early this week. Large amounts of
available moisture combined with weak steering flow could allow for
hourly rainfall accumulations between 1-3" causing ponding on
roadways and localized flooding of low lying and urban areas.

High temperatures are forecast near seasonal values today in the
upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. A few degrees warmer
into Monday, ranging the low 90s area wide. Conditions remain muggy
with peak heat index values between 98-103 today and 100-105
tomorrow.

Tuesday-Saturday...Moisture becomes reinforced on Tuesday as an area
of low pressure lifts off the northeast U.S. coast and an
accompanying surface boundary sinks towards Florida. Mid level high
pressure across the southern U.S. retreats westward into mid week as
an area of troughing digs into the southeast U.S. Another boundary
sinks toward the state into Thursday, keeping PWATs elevated into
late week. In response, coverage of afternoon showers and storms
remain high (60-70%) each afternoon through the mid and long term
forecast. A diurnal sea breeze development is expected each
afternoon. Light west to southwest flow will generally favor the
inland extent of the west coast sea breeze through late week, and
any sea breeze collisions are favored across the central or eastern
side of the peninsula. Guidance then suggests a transition to
easterly flow into the weekend. The greatest hazards with any
developing storms continues to be occasional to frequent lightning
strikes and periods of locally heavy rainfall.

High temperatures remain steady through the period, warming into the
low 90s each afternoon. Peak heat index values will generally range
between 102-106 through late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today-Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote
south to southeast winds across the local waters. Seas of 3 ft
gradually subside to 2 ft into Monday night. Scattered to numerous
lightning storms are forecast.

Tuesday-Thursday...Light southwest to west flow develops over the
local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each
afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas
remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well
offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  93  76 /  60  40  70  20
MCO  90  75  92  76 /  60  50  70  20
MLB  88  75  91  75 /  60  40  70  30
VRB  89  73  91  74 /  50  40  60  20
LEE  92  76  93  77 /  60  40  70  20
SFB  91  76  93  76 /  60  40  70  20
ORL  91  76  93  77 /  60  40  70  20
FPR  89  73  91  73 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Kelly