Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
093 FXUS62 KMLB 230153 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 953 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Elevated Low level easterly flow and a band of low level moisture from near the Cape southward will continue to transport isolated to scattered showers onshore through the remainder of the night. Isolated storms will also be possible over the coastal waters, with one or two storms potentially pushing onshore, mainly south of Melbourne. Rain chances continue to range around 20-30 percent across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions forecast into tonight, with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. Model guidance continues to indicate greatest potential for any fog development across north Florida into late tonight. However, may see some patchy fog expand into areas northwest of I-4 through Lake and NW Volusia counties toward daybreak Monday. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s possible along the immediate coast south of the Cape that maintain an onshore wind. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 754 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mainly VFR into tonight. It will be mostly dry, except for isolated onshore moving showers along the coast from near to south of the Cape into tonight, and have continued VCSH in the TAFs for these sites. Latest guidance keeps greatest potential for fog development across north Florida late tonight into early Monday morning. However, could see some patchy fog form northwest of the I-4 corridor near or around KLEE so added a brief tempo for MVFR visibilities from 10-12Z. Drier air will continue to build into the region, especially across northern portions of east central FL, which will keep rain chances limited and mainly south of Orlando. Have therefore kept VCSH in the TAFs for KVRB-KSUA. Ridge and warmer temps aloft should keep limit if not completely suppress any lightning storm development across southern portions of east central FL. NE winds becoming light and variable overnight, then picking up again out of the E/NE into late morning/afternoon on Monday, with speeds 7-12 knots and gusts to 15-18 knots possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure over the Deep South gradually transitions eastward into the western Atlc. Present NERLY winds will veer ERLY overnight into Mon becoming ESE/SE on Tue. Wind speeds will remain AOB 15 kts thru Tue morning, then increase 12-18 kts areawide Tue afternoon-night. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower/lightning storm chances - highest values south from the Cape. Seas generally 3-4 ft, with up to 5ft possible offshore/Gulf Stream beginning Tue afternoon-night. .Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion... Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 80% chance of formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico. Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system. While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to deteriorate from around mid into late week, as southeasterly winds increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast for any changes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 74 89 / 10 10 0 10 MCO 74 92 74 91 / 10 10 0 10 MLB 77 89 77 89 / 20 20 10 10 VRB 75 89 75 89 / 30 20 10 20 LEE 73 92 73 92 / 10 0 0 10 SFB 73 91 73 91 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 75 92 75 92 / 10 10 0 10 FPR 75 89 75 89 / 30 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Weitlich