375
FXUS62 KMLB 190552
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
152 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. Ongoing TSRA along the Treasure Coast
should taper off by around 7Z. Then, dry conditions forecast
through late morning. Initially offshore winds will veer easterly
along the coast by around 18Z, as the east coast sea breeze
develops. The sea breeze will then push inland through the day,
reaching inland terminals by mid to late afternoon. Winds around
10kts or less. VCTS possible along the sea breeze in the afternoon
hours. The highest chance for showers and storms looks to be the
Treasure Coast, though confidence is too low to include TEMPOs at
this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Offshore flow and strong heating allowed max temps to reach the
mid 90s along the coast, good enough to break today`s record high
at DAB (94F) and tie the record high at MLB (93F). Storms pushing
E/SE from north FL hooked onto the east coast sea breeze boundary
in coastal Volusia county and rode southward into north Brevard
before pushing offshore. Enhanced helicities behind the sea breeze
produced broadly rotating storms with tightening couplets
prompting a tornado warning for southern Volusia. Storms were
excessive lightning producers with large hail likely aloft but
which mostly melted by the time they reached the sfc. Lightning
storms over the Atlc will continue into the overnight with
isolated showers and storms south of Orlando where outflow
boundaries will be colliding.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Now-Tonight...Light onshore flow turns offshore tonight. Seas
remain generally favorable, around 3-4 ft, outside of any
isolated/scattered lightning storms that push offshore this
evening.

Thursday-Sunday...Another day of winds becoming onshore around 10
kt Thursday afternoon, with isolated/scattered showers possible by
the late afternoon and evening (mainly south of Cape Canaveral).
Seas decrease further, around 2-4 ft. A surface front traverses
the local waters on Friday, settling across south Florida and the
Florida Straits this weekend. Northeast winds increase
persistently each day, especially in the afternoon hours, gusting
as high as 15-20 kt by Sunday. Seas gradually build Saturday into
Sunday as a result, up to 5 ft offshore by Sunday afternoon/night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  88  74 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  92  74  90  73 /  40  20  20   0
MLB  90  74  88  74 /  40  30  30  10
VRB  90  73  88  73 /  50  50  40  20
LEE  90  73  90  73 /  30  10  10   0
SFB  90  73  89  72 /  40  10  20   0
ORL  92  75  90  74 /  40  10  20   0
FPR  90  73  88  72 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy