239
FXUS62 KMLB 190241
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1041 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Offshore flow and strong heating allowed max temps to reach the
mid 90s along the coast, good enough to break today`s record high
at DAB (94F) and tie the record high at MLB (93F). Storms pushing
E/SE from north FL hooked onto the east coast sea breeze boundary
in coastal Volusia county and rode southward into north Brevard
before pushing offshore. Enhanced helicities behind the sea breeze
produced broadly rotating storms with tightening couplets
prompting a tornado warning for southern Volusia. Storms were
excessive lightning producers with large hail likely aloft but
which mostly melted by the time they reached the sfc. Lightning
storms over the Atlc will continue into the overnight with
isolated showers and storms south of Orlando where outflow
boundaries will be colliding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 825 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Primary concern this eve is for ongoing strong storms INVOF KTIX
with potential for sliding southward toward MLB. Lessening
convective potential from VRB-SUA as well as MCO/SFB. Light SW
flow overnight becoming NW 5-10 knots after sunrise, veering NE-
ENE along the coast aft 17Z behind a sea breeze. Expect late day
storms to focus again near the coast terminals on Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Now-Tonight...Light onshore flow turns offshore tonight. Seas
remain generally favorable, around 3-4 ft, outside of any
isolated/scattered lightning storms that push offshore this
evening.

Thursday-Sunday...Another day of winds becoming onshore around 10
kt Thursday afternoon, with isolated/scattered showers possible by
the late afternoon and evening (mainly south of Cape Canaveral).
Seas decrease further, around 2-4 ft. A surface front traverses
the local waters on Friday, settling across south Florida and the
Florida Straits this weekend. Northeast winds increase
persistently each day, especially in the afternoon hours, gusting
as high as 15-20 kt by Sunday. Seas gradually build Saturday into
Sunday as a result, up to 5 ft offshore by Sunday afternoon/night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  89 /  50  30  10  20
MCO  74  92  73  91 /  30  50  10  30
MLB  74  90  75  88 /  60  40  40  30
VRB  73  90  73  89 /  60  50  40  40
LEE  74  90  73  90 /  20  40  10  20
SFB  73  91  73  90 /  30  50  10  30
ORL  75  92  75  91 /  30  50  10  30
FPR  73  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly