338
FXUS62 KMLB 160214
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1014 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Convection was focused across northern and central sections today
from Brevard and Osceola northward. Boundary collisions produced
the heaviest rains stretching from north Brevard, Orange and into
central Lake county. The highest rainfall totals occurred near
Windemere where a handful of rain gages reported 4-5 inches. Wind
fields were weak and lapse rates were unimpressive so downburst
winds were not very strong. Peak wind gust was 40 mph at LEE.
Only isolated showers remain over the interior and these will
diminish soon resulting in a quiet overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Sunday... High pressure will build to the north over the western
Atlantic and the state of Florida with winds forecast to veer
onshore and increase into the afternoon at 10-15mph. Predominate
onshore easterly flow will keep the west coast sea breeze from
making it far inland into central Florida. Shower and storm
chances decrease as result with PoPs ~ 30-50%. The highest shower
and storm chances are forecast over the western interior where
outflow from previous storms converge with the east coast sea
breeze. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast
with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s under partly
cloudy to partly sunny skies. Low temperatures in the low to upper
70s are expected.

Monday-Friday (modified previous discussion)... Stout mid-level
ridge across the mid Atlc/southeast U.S. extending into the FL
peninsula will strengthen thru Tue night along the Eastern
Seaboard, but is undercut Wed-Fri by some westward moving mid-
level impulses. Temperatures warm aloft, as well, -4.0C to -5.5C.
Plentiful PWAT values near 2 inches on Mon, then some overall
drier air moves in through mid-week before a return to more moist
conditions Thu-Fri. The deep onshore flow continues thru the
period and along with the warm temperatures aloft may at best
provide for ISOLD lightning chances, especially over land.
Slightly cooler temperatures aloft Wed-Fri, along with an influx
of moisture may be enough to promote SCT wording for thunder
during this timeframe. Showers will remain in the SCT category
with perhaps NMRS showers Thu-Fri.

With the persistent onshore flow at least into Wed, we will
likely see the greatest precip chances along the coast
overnight/morning-early afternoon hours, with higher afternoon-
evening convective chances across the interior. The pressure
gradient is expected to tighten next week with breezy onshore
conditions each day with gusts to 25-30mph and perhaps remaining
elevated along the coast during the evening/overnight periods.
This will create additional convergence along the coast and the
latter part of this period. We may have to watch for some pockets
of heavy low-topped showery precip, especially along the coast. By
Wed night thru Fri, medium range models suggest higher PoPs
areawide due to a wave of low pressure that is forecast to
approach the east coast of Florida. There is high uncertainty in
the forecast mid to late week at this point with global models now
trending towards a potential tropical wave/low developing and
moving west over the western Atlantic towards the Southeastern
U.S. coast. Have continued to undercut the NBM`s high-PoP bias in
the midterm for now with high rain and storm chances forecast to
return late week.

Thanks in part to the onshore flow, temperatures will be seasonable
through the period, with afternoon highs in the U80s to L90s
(interior), and overnight lows remaining mild in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mainly VFR conds forecast through the TAF period. Gradual
decrease in mid and high clouds overnight with light and variable
winds. On Sat, a deeper east flow develops which advects some
drier air lowering SHRA/TSRA coverage. So only have VCSH for the
interior terminals aft 18Z, pushing westward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Currently-Tonight... High pressure will build to the north of
Florida into the overnight. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20-30%) and
lightning storms capable of gusty winds are forecast over the
local Atlantic into the early morning hours. West to southwest
winds at 5-10kts are forecast to veer northeast into Sunday
morning.

Sun-Wed...An onshore wind component will develop on Sun continuing
into next week while getting deeper/stronger. Wind speeds increasing
8-14 kts on Sun, 11-17 kts Sun night, and 15-22 kts Mon-Wed as
the pgrad tightens. Seas remain 2-3 ft into Sun evening, 3-4 ft
Sun night, 4-5 ft Mon-early Tue, 4-6 ft Tue aftn-Wed night. ISOLD-
SCT convection thru Sun with SCT showery precip into Wed ramping
up to likely Wed night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  76  88 /  10  30  10  40
MCO  74  89  75  89 /  20  50  10  30
MLB  74  88  77  88 /  20  30  20  40
VRB  73  88  76  88 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  75  91  75  91 /  20  50  20  20
SFB  74  91  75  90 /  20  40  10  30
ORL  75  91  76  90 /  20  50  10  30
FPR  73  87  76  87 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly