Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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091 FXUS62 KMLB 180535 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 135 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 131 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Generally VFR conditions prevailing through the period, though guidance suggests MVFR CIGs will be possible Tuesday evening. Elevated winds overnight will be breezy to windy Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours, with sustained winds up to around 15-20kts and gusts up to 25-30kts. Showers will occasionally drift onshore overnight tonight, with VCSH along the Treasure Coast. Then, coverage of showers is forecast to increase Tuesday afternoon, with VCSH area-wide into Tuesday night. Will need to monitor the need for any TEMPOs or SHRA. Drier air in the mid and upper levels should limit the TS threat, so have not included VCTS at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Deep easterly flow around high pressure off the New England coast will keep min temps quite mild, holding in the upper 70s/near 80 at the coast and mid 70s interior tonight. Isolated showers will push onshore and could spread well inland before dissipating but coverage will be low. Very dry mid levels will prevent deep convection (thunder). && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions are expected as persistent onshore flow works to build seas up to 5 ft. Wind speeds of 15-20 kt are expected with gusts 20-25 kt. Small craft should exercise caution over the local waters. In addition, isolated showers will continue to stream from east to west over the Atlantic through daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday-Friday (modified previous...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. A Small Craft Advisory begins for the offshore waters late Tuesday morning and will likely expand to the rest of the local waters through midweek. Onshore flow will persist , with winds generally 15-20 KT through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the offshore waters Wednesday and Thursday. Winds decrease to around 10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft on Wednesday, and 7-9 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. Increasing rain and storm chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and lightning storms remaining possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 76 87 75 / 30 30 50 50 MCO 88 76 88 76 / 30 40 50 30 MLB 87 77 87 77 / 50 50 60 60 VRB 87 76 88 76 / 50 50 60 60 LEE 91 77 91 75 / 20 20 40 20 SFB 88 75 89 75 / 30 40 50 40 ORL 89 76 89 76 / 30 40 50 30 FPR 87 76 87 75 / 50 50 60 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Kelly AVIATION...Leahy