466
FXUS62 KMLB 191852
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
252 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Coverage of SHRA has increased across ECFL, prompting
reinstatementof prevailing -SHRA to all TAFs except KDAB. VIS
should remain mostly VFR, but brief MVFR-IFR reduction will be
possible. Might need TEMPOs at KMCO/KISM if coverage continues to
increase, resulting in longer periods of impacts. Inland TAFs
switch to VCSH by around 02Z as chances of onshore moving SHRA
reaching the terminals, while -SHRA continues at coastal terminals
(KDAB picks up -SHRA). Inland terminals pick -SHRA back up
Thursday morning as coverage increases again. Erly winds
increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts again this
afternoon settle to NE-ENE at 10-15 kts overnight, remaining gusty
at the coast. Should see some reduction in winds Thursday, but
still picking up to at least 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts in the
afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A batch of showers and embedded lightning storms continues to trek
west into portions of Osceola and Orange counties this morning,
after producing 1-2" of rain in portions of St. Lucie, Indian
River, and Brevard counties (according to 3-hour MRMS estimates).
Elsewhere, showers are isolated in nature and will likely remain
that way through the day, after the main swath of rain pushes
west of our area in the next couple of hours. A couple of
embedded storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon as
additional activity over the Atlantic pushes toward the coast.
PoPs and thunder chances have been adjusted to reflect the latest
radar/satellite trends.

Also, temperatures have stayed a few degrees cooler due to rain
and associated cloud cover. The forecast was updated to account
for this change, lowering highs by a degree or so everywhere.
Sunshine may take some time to emerge early in the afternoon, so
trends will continue to be monitored for additional (downward) adjustments.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Today-Tonight (modified previous)...Hazardous boating conditions
will persist, with onshore winds 20-25kts and gusts to around
30kts. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the local
Atlantic waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9ft tonight and
could approach 10ft offshore by daybreak Thursday. Scattered
showers will continue to drift onshore through tonight, with a few
lightning storms possible.

Thursday-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions will persist
through late week, with seas 7-9ft Thursday possibly approaching
10ft offshore. Breezy ENE winds up to 15-20kts will linger, though
will be lower than Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisories have
been extended through Thursday night. Improving boating conditions
to end the work week and will continue into this weekend, as winds
and seas diminish. Lingering seas 4-5ft Friday afternoon will
become 2-3ft by Sunday. Increasingly southeasterly winds are
forecast at 10-15kts. Daily shower and lightning storm chances
will continue, however.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  86  76  89 /  40  50  50  50
MCO  75  88  75  92 /  30  40  20  50
MLB  78  87  76  89 /  40  40  20  50
VRB  77  87  75  89 /  40  40  20  50
LEE  76  90  76  94 /  20  30  20  50
SFB  75  88  75  92 /  30  40  30  50
ORL  76  88  76  92 /  30  40  20  50
FPR  77  87  74  88 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley