Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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146 FXUS62 KMLB 221319 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 919 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 919 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 There is just enough low level moisture with the onshore flow to allow a few showers to develop and push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast. A slight chance for showers will persist through this morning across this region. However, as sea breeze forms late this morning and begins to shift inland, this activity will diminish. 10Z sounding from the CAPE already shows limited overall moisture in place, with PW value of 1.3 inches, and GOES-16 PW imagery shows even drier air (PW values around 1 inch) beginning to push into the area from the east this morning. This drier air combined with ridge building in aloft, should maintain dry conditions across east central Florida into the afternoon. MOS and CAM guidance are in pretty good agreement with this as well. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with highs near to slightly above normal in the mid/upper 80s along the coast and upper 80s/low 90s across the interior. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Today-Thursday...Mid level troughing offshore the southeast U.S. is nudged seaward as ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico and over Florida. Surface high pressure remains near the eastern seaboard. Ridging in place promotes warming temperatures and drying conditions today and tomorrow. Onshore flow will allow for the inland progression of the east coast seabreeze each afternoon. The best chance for an isolated shower will be in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee where lake and sea breeze boundaries interact. Afternoon temperatures warm into the low 90s across the interior today, remaining in the mid to upper 80s along and east of I-95. Temperatures trend above seasonal values tomorrow, ranging the upper 80s along the coast and nearing the mid 90s across the interior. Friday-Tuesday...Warm and muggy conditions continue to build as moisture returns and a flattening 500mb ridge holds influence over the Florida peninsula. High temperatures further climb through the weekend and into early next week, reaching the upper 90s along and west of I-95 on Sunday. Not much relief on the coast with highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values between 97-102 on Friday, increase to 100-107 degrees early next week, nearing Heat Advisory criteria. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! Coverage of isolated showers and storms return across much of east central Florida through the weekend and early next week while PoPs generally remain 20 percent or less. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 736 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Possible patchy fog early north/west of I-4, otherwise continued mainly VFR thru the period. Light onshore flow this morning will continue NE/ENE today with speeds increasing 10-15 kts thru the afternoon, with some higher gusts. Few showers along the Space/Treasure coasts this morning, else an ISOLD aftn shower or a lightning storm possible KFPR-KSUA-KOBE surrounding ECSB/Lake Okeechobee breeze. MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Will use "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as necessary. Diminished convective chances past early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Today-Tonight...Seas up to 4 ft in the Gulf Stream gradually subside, becoming widely 2-3 ft by sunset. Onshore flow persists, increasing to around 10 kts this afternoon. Locally higher winds will be possible near the coast as a sea breeze develops and moves inland. Mostly dry with shower activity limited to the Treasure Coast waters. Thursday-Sunday...High pressure builds across the local waters, promoting favorable boating conditions through the period. Onshore winds veer south-southwest into Friday, backing along the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Light winds around 5-10 kts Thursday increase to 10-15 kts into the weekend. Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible across the Treasure Coast waters Thursday and Friday with coverage expanding to the Brevard waters Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 69 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 91 70 93 72 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 86 72 87 72 / 10 0 10 0 VRB 87 70 89 70 / 20 0 10 0 LEE 92 71 93 73 / 10 0 10 0 SFB 91 69 93 71 / 0 0 10 0 ORL 91 70 94 72 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 88 68 88 69 / 20 0 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Sedlock