Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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316 FXUS62 KMLB 241415 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1015 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Went ahead and added a generous 20 pct chance of showers and lightning storms to the forecast along the sea breeze collision over the far western interior in the evening, and a silent 10 pct buffer eastward through most of the inland counties, since CAMs have been consistently showing some convection as moisture increases a bit. GOES satellite imagery shows PWATs generally 1.2-1.3" across ECFL this morning, backed by the TBW and XMR soundings, and higher PWATs 1.4-1.5" to the north drifting towards the area. Models indicate PWATs could increase up to 1.6" by the evening, which is above normal for the time of year though not anomalously. Otherwise, forecast remains unchanged and on track for mostly dry and warming conditions. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies as toasty afternoon highs inland get into the L-M90s, with a few western parts of Osceola and Okeechobee counties reaching towards the U90s. Highs along the coastal corridor top of in the M-U80s, with those M80s generally just the barrier islands, thanks to the sea breeze turning winds onshore around 10 mph by around 2 PM. The ECSB breeze will push inland through the rest of the afternoon, colliding with the WCSB near the Kissimmee River and through Lake County in the evening around 8 PM. Winds become light and variable overnight, with temperatures dropping to the U60-L70s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...Primary weather concern heading into the holiday weekend will be the heat, as hotter than normal conditions are expected, with highs well into the 90s... ...Overall drier than normal conditions expected each day through Monday, but isolated afternoon showers and storms may still be possible, mainly inland on Saturday... Current...Continued dry across the area early this morning as deep layer moisture values range from near 1 inch up to around 1.20 inches (below normal). Weak high pressure ridging exists across the region. A light onshore flow will promote morning lows well into the 60s and L70s. Skies mostly clear across ECFL. Not expecting much in the way of fog development, but smoke from any lingering active or smoldering brush fires will still be able to cause visibility concerns along area roadways. Today-Tonight...Mid-level troughing will finally lift northeastward from the western Atlc/Bahamas with mid-level ridging still centered in the SW GoMex extending into the FL peninsula. Mid-level winds will be out of the NW with some shortwave energy traversing north FL late in the period. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging across the western Atlc will continue to drift south/east away from ECFL, though there will be a secondary weak high center just off of the WCFL coast. This will continue to promote a fairly weak pressure gradient across ECFL. Initial light/variable morning winds will become of an ERLY component as the sea breeze develops along the coast and ventures inland during the afternoon/early evening. PWAT values will recover a bit to between 1.40-1.60 inches thru late day. Continue with the mostly dry forecast and will leave out any mention in the grids/zones. There will be an eventual sea breeze collision this evening along the Kissimmee River or just westward up thru Lake County. Temperatures continue to trend upward, with highs in the U80s for the immediate coast and L-M90s into the interior. A few U90s cannot be ruled out across Okeechobee County north along the Kissimmee River. Peak heat index values will range from the upper 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows remain consistent with conditions humid, and values well in the U60s to L70s. Sat-Thu...Much of this period continues to be highlighted by increasing temperatures. Mid-level ridging will extend across the GoMex to across the FL peninsula into early next week as any decent shortwave energy remains north of the area, except the GFS hints at some impulses breaching the northeast periphery and sliding down the eastern FL peninsula on Sat. Some additional weak energy aloft does push south across the area by late Tue thru mid next week. At the surface, a rather weak pressure gradient remains in place thru the holiday weekend. Medium range models hint at a potential frontal boundary getting forced south into the area late Tue/Wed, stalling across south-central FL on Thu. Tue-Thu will also have the highest PoP chances over the extended, generally 20-40pct, but nothing widespread in nature. Otherwise, drier than normal conditions will largely continue into the holiday weekend, with only a slight chance (20pct) for showers and lightning storms currently forecast for Sat, mainly across the interior. However some CAMs are suggesting a little higher coverage for late in the day, so stay tuned! Highs mostly in the 90s areawide each day with maxes in the M-U90s for many inland areas at least thru Tue and/or Wed. Heat indices in the L-M100s each day thru at least Tue, with some U100s possible Sun- Tue, generally south of Orlando and Melbourne, which would flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions will be humid overnight, with values 70-75F on average for most. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 630 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to continue at all east central Florida terminals through the period. Light and variable winds early this morning will become onshore around 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Winds will then become light and variable tonight after 00Z. Dry weather is expected to continue across the terminals, though a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out across the interior terminals due to the sea breeze collision. Confidence in this continue to remain low, so left it out once again with this forecast package. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Today-Tonight...The pressure gradient will remain weak with light/variable morning winds becoming onshore by late morning/early afternoon, esp at the coast. Winds will become light SSW again by late evening or overnight. Seas 2-3 ft. Mostly dry conditions. Sat-Tue...Continued favorable boating conditions, though it will be increasingly hot and any shower/lightning storm chances will only be ISOLD to WDLY SCT - most likely across the Gulf Stream. Winds again become onshore each late morning and afternoon with daily sea breeze regime (10-15 kts along the coast), but will veer a light offshore component or become light/variable each overnight period. Seas mostly AOB 3 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 70 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 94 72 96 74 / 10 10 20 0 MLB 88 72 91 74 / 0 0 20 10 VRB 89 71 93 72 / 0 0 10 10 LEE 94 73 94 73 / 20 20 10 0 SFB 94 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 10 ORL 94 73 96 74 / 10 10 20 10 FPR 89 70 94 71 / 0 0 20 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Haley AVIATION...Tollefsen