391
FXUS62 KMLB 281727
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
127 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Ongoing SHRA/TSRA INVOF the I-4 terminals expected to push
east/southeast by 20Z. This activity is forecast to reach KTIX-
KSUA between between 18Z to the north and 19-20Z to the south, but
still somewhat low confidence in timing and could arrive a little
on the early side. KTIX-KSUA clearing for the most part by 00Z,
but SHRA could linger until 03Z. Main TSRA impacts MVFR-IFR VIS
reductions, ceilings have stayed well above 030 so far. VFR
conditions prevail late this evening after SHRA/TSRA dissipates or
pushes offshore. Mostly dry conditions Wednesday. Winds this
afternoon Wrly 5-10 kts, turning E-SE at the coastal terminals
behind the sea breeze, become light and VRB overnight, then wake
up Wednesday morning at Nrly 5-10 kts, becoming NE-ENE in the
afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Remnant isolated showers from earlier storms across the Nature
Coast were dissipating on approach to Lake and Volusia counties.
This activity is along the leading edge of an outflow boundary,
stretching from Hernando to Marion counties, and is also moving in
sync with some higher GOES-derived PW values (1.7"+). Quick-
hitting showers may develop along the outflow as it pushes deeper
into central FL this morning. A band of increasing moisture
convergence is expected as we head into the afternoon, generally
south of I-4 toward Orlando/Cape Canaveral and south toward Lake
Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. For these areas, PoP is in the
35-50 percent range with isolated to scattered storms expected.
Mid level dry air, a potential lingering surface inversion, and
modest mid level lapse rates will all work against robust
convective development. The QPF remains highest generally south
of Titusville toward the Treasure Coast, where the east coast
breeze may locally enhance storms late in the afternoon and early
this evening. The most organized storms today will be capable of
wind gusts to 50 mph, lightning strikes, and locally heavy
downpours.

Hot temperatures remain in the forecast with mid to upper 90s
expected, with the hottest locations across the southern half of
the forecast area. A couple of records could be approached,
especially on the Treasure Coast, depending on the
development and arrival time of the east coast breeze or
convection. Practice heat safety if outdoors by staying hydrated
and taking frequent breaks in the shade and air conditioned
spaces.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, mainly during the afternoon and into the evening hours, as
a weak cool front approaches the area. A few storms could produce
strong wind gusts. Otherwise, favorable boating conditions
prevailing, with winds remaining under 12kts. Offshore winds this
morning will back south/southeasterly this afternoon as the sea
breeze develops. Then, winds will once again become offshore
overnight. Seas 1-3ft.

Wednesday-Saturday...The aforementioned front will linger around
the area through the week, continuing shower and thunderstorm
chances each day. However, will see generally favorable boating
conditions persist, as onshore winds remain below 15kts through
the work week. By Saturday, though, high pressure building into
the western Atlantic is forecast to increase winds to up to
15-20kts, leading to poor boating conditions. Seas 1-3ft fore most
of the period building to up to 4ft on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Today (modified previous)...Sensitive fire weather conditions
persist today, as min RH values fall to 35-45% for much of the
area today. Increased shower and thunderstorm chances (up to
30-50%), mainly during the afternoon hours, will do little to
provide relief from hot high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
Westerly winds prevail today, though will see winds back east to
southeast this afternoon as the sea breeze develops but remains
pinned near the coast. High mixing heights will lead to another
day of excellent dispersion, with control issues likely. Also,
lightning strikes could lead to additional fire starts.

Wednesday-Friday...Drier air moving into the area mid to late week
will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions as min RH
values dip to as low as 25-30% over the interior, especially
Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal areas will remain between 35-50%.
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day. Fortunately,
wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15mph, as northerly
winds early Wednesday veer onshore and remain that way through the
period. Dispersion will remain excellent, so control issues will
likely persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  91  70  90 /  20   0   0  10
MCO  74  96  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  74  91  73  90 /  30  10   0  10
VRB  72  92  71  91 /  40  10   0  10
LEE  73  95  71  95 /   0  10   0  10
SFB  73  96  71  95 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  75  96  73  95 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  72  92  71  91 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley