922
FXUS62 KMLB 211422
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1015
AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the northeast Florida
coast continues to move west-northwest towards the northeast Florida
and Georgia coasts. Conditions remain mostly favorable (50%) for
weak development with weak deep layer shear and anomalously warm
waters in place over the southwest Atlantic. However,the low is
expected to continue to move to the north of central Florida with
the same impacts expected for east central Florida regardless of
development.

Current radar imagery shows scattered showers over the local
Atlantic and isolated showers over areas north-northwest of
Titusville. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered
lighting storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and as
showers/storms move onshore and increase in coverage with the east
coast sea breeze pushing inland. The main hazards associated with
stronger lightning storms that develop are expected to be occasional
to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 30-40mph, and
moderate to brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s
to mid 90s are forecast with heat index values in the mid 90s to 105
degrees under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs) Issued at 644 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR CIGs are forecast to prevail across the northern terminals
through late morning. VCSH is mentioned from MLB northward this
morning with prevailing -SHRA at LEE/DAB as low pressure continues
to approach the Florida coastline from the Atlantic. Isolated storms
are forecast across the north into the afternoon and VCTS is
mentioned at MCO/ISM/TIX/MLB. Variable winds throughout the morning
become east into the afternoon increasing to around 8-12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Today...A tropical disturbance is forecast to remain north of the
waters, reaching the FL/GA border later today. As the trough axis
passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the
south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside
below 7 feet offshore by afternoon. A Small craft advisory remains
in effect this morning for the Volusia waters and offshore Brevard
with Caution for most of the other marine zones. Ongoing scattered
showers with a few embedded lightning storms will persist this
morning near and north of Cape Canaveral then should decrease in
coverage. But additional late day storms over land may reach the
Volusia/north Brevard coast toward sunset.

Sat-Tue...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early next
week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts this
weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze near the
coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft becoming 2-3 ft
through the period. Greater daily shower and thunderstorm coverage
is expected, especially early next week, with increasing chances for
offshore- moving convection each afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  91  75 /  70  30  60  60 MCO  91  77  92  76 /  50  30
60  50 MLB  89  77  90  76 /  30  30 60  60 VRB  91  76  90  75 /
30  30 60  40 LEE  89  77  94  76 / 60  30 60  50 SFB  89  76  92
75 / 50  30 60  50 ORL  90  77  92 76 / 50  30 60  50 FPR  91  76
90 75 / 30  30 60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ141.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-
570-     572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Law