224
FXUS62 KMLB 171507
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1107 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A steady stream of high clouds are being steered southeastward
across the peninsula this morning, along with low level cumulus.
The 10z XMR sounding indicates a stout dry layer above 700mb,
keeping most of the marine shower activity to a minimum. Still, a
passing light sprinkle or shower cannot be ruled out along the
immediate coast. Temperatures were nudged up a degree or so in
most areas for afternoon highs, as were wind speeds, to account
for persistent onshore flow. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible at
the coast, reaching 20-25 mph elsewhere.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches, so always
swim near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy easterly winds today increasing
to around 15kts this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 25kts are
forecast, especially along the coast. These winds will carry
isolated, light showers onshore through the day, though coverage
is forecast to be too low to include VCSH in the TAF at any site.
However, the highest chance for seeing a shower or two will be at
coastal locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 524 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Today-Tonight...Deteriorating sea and boating conditions. Expect
breezy onshore flow, with wind speeds generally around 15-20 KT,
especially across the offshore Treasure Coast waters. Winds will
increase to 15-20 KT across all the waters, except nearshore
Volusia, tonight. Small craft should exercise caution in these
waters as winds become 15-20 KT. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet,
increasing to 5 ft in the Gulf stream waters overnight. Isolated
showers through the period, with isolated lightning storms
possible this afternoon and evening.

Tuesday-Friday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected
through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as
it moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow will persist through
the period , with winds generally 15-20 KT through Thursday, with
winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the offshore waters
Wednesday/Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late
week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft on Wednesday,
and 7-10 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with
seas decreasing to 4-6ft. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed across the offshore waters starting Tuesday, and expanding
to all the waters on Wednesday. Increasing rain and storm chances
mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered
lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will decrease
slightly into late week, with scattered showers and lightning
storms remaining possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  87  75 /  20  20  30  30
MCO  89  75  87  75 /  10  20  40  20
MLB  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  89  76  87  76 /  20  20  40  40
LEE  91  75  90  75 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  90  74  89  74 /  10  20  30  20
ORL  90  75  89  75 /  10  20  40  20
FPR  88  76  87  75 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Leahy