977
FXUS62 KMLB 161825
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
225 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/storms.
MVFR conditions are forecast at KLEE after 06z for BR and visibility
to 4miles into the early AM. TAFs begin with VCTS between 18-20Z
at KSUA and TAF sites N of KMLB. Isolated to scattered showers/lightning
storms are forecast to develop into the PM and end by 00-02Z. Light
and variable winds are forecast to become onshore into the PM

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Key Messages:

-Scattered showers and storms are forecast this week.
-A high risk of rip currents exists at area beaches.
-Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue.
-Astronomical high tides will promote higher than normal tide
cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued.

Current-Tonight...Isolated convective activity across Osceola
county late last night has gradually moved eastward through the
early morning hours, finally moving offshore Cape Canaveral.
Otherwise, mostly quiet across the local CWA. Have kept a broad
mention of patchy fog from southern Brevard and Osceola counties
southward ahead of sunrise. However, confidence in this scenario
is dwindling due to increasing high cloud cover.

06Z analysis charts show a surface boundary stretched across the
Florida peninsula this morning. Where not obstructed by cloud cover,
GOES-16 PWAT imagery indicates a band of drier air in place. Models
suggest the driest air remaining centered between Cape Canaveral and
Lake Okeechobee. A moisture gradient to the north will host the
greatest focus of scattered afternoon showers and storms. The
current forecast calls for 30-50% PoPs north of a line from Cape
Canaveral to Lake Marion. Isolated stronger storms will be capable
of occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 45-50
mph and locally heavy rainfall. High temperatures will remain in
the low 90s with peak heat index values forecast between 98-104.

Long period onshore flow from PTC8 and astronomical high tides will
continue to promote poor to hazardous marine and beach conditions.
Recent observations at Trident pier have shown tidal levels up to
2.05 ft above the mean higher high water datum, and a Coastal Flood
Advisory has been issued along the central Florida Atlantic Coast
through the next several high tide cycles. Over the local marine
area, seas near 7 ft have been observed, and the Small Craft
Advisory across the offshore waters has been extended to include
nearshore Volusia and Brevard. At area beaches, there is a high risk
of life threatening rip currents.

Tuesday...The aforementioned surface boundary lifts northward across
the area on Tuesday, temporarily settling across north Florida.
Aloft, a 500mb shortwave swings southeastward across the Florida
peninsula. Mid-level moisture recovers some compared to Monday while
PWATs remain shy of 2" (1.7-1.9"). Low level moisture should still
be sufficient enough to support scattered afternoon convection with
PoPs ranging 30-50 percent. Isolated strong storm hazards continue
to remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and
locally heavy downpours. Afternoon temperatures remain near seasonal
in the low 90s with peak heat index values between 99-105. Onshore
long period swells around 9 seconds will continue to promote a
high risk of life threatening rip currents at area beaches.

Wednesday-Sunday...Mid level low pressure across the southeast U.S.
becomes absorbed into an open trough late week. A series of 500mb
vorticity pulses will move across the peninsula through the period.
The surface boundary across north Florida shifts back southward
across the area Thursday, moving into south Florida. A drier airmass
builds behind the boundary while moisture piles up to its south.
Coverage of showers and storms remains mostly scattered through the
extended period with the greatest coverage forecast on Thursday
(50-60%). High temperatures in the low 90s cool into the upper
80s by the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Today-Tonight...Long period onshore swell from PTC8 will continue to
promote poor to hazardous boating conditions. Early morning
observations from NOAA Buoy 41009 and NOAA Buoy 41070 have shown
seas increasing near 7 ft, and the Small Craft Advisory across the
offshore waters has been expanded to include nearshore Volusia and
nearshore Brevard. Small craft should exercise caution across the
nearshore Treasure Coast. Seas are forecast to subside to 5-6 ft
nearshore late this afternoon, while hazardous seas of 7-8 ft
continue into the late evening offshore. Winds will remain light
throughout the day, generally remaining 10 kts or less. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are forecast.


Tuesday-Friday...Seas subside Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft
Wednesday afternoon. Variable winds continue into late week while
remaining 10 kts or less. Scattered to numerous showers and
scattered lighting storms are forecast each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The Saint Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate
Flood stage (around 3.2-3.4 ft) through midweek. The potential
exists for small additional rises if locally heavy rainfall develops
over the river basin.

Southward, additional heavy rainfall across the Saint Johns River
basin has caused a steady rise in river levels with the forecast
point at Deland now in Action Stage and the point at Sanford
forecast to reach Action Stage Tuesday. Geneva Above Lake Harney is
now forecast to to remain just below Action Stage into early this
week, with a brief rise to Action Stage possible toward midweek.
Additional heavy rain could cause further rises, so interests along
the river should monitor for forecast updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  91  73  92 /  20  50  10  50
MLB  76  90  74  90 /  40  50  40  50
VRB  76  90  73  91 /  30  50  40  50
LEE  73  90  73  91 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  73  90  73  91 /  20  50  10  50
ORL  75  91  74  92 /  20  50  10  50
FPR  76  90  73  90 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$


UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling