Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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881 FXUS62 KMLB 221949 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... KEY MESSAGES: - High rain shower and storm chances this weekend into next week - High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values at 100-107 degrees each afternoon - High risk for rip currents today with at least a moderate risk Sunday into next week .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Currently-Tonight... An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) remains near the Georgia and northeast Florida coast with a mid/upper level ridge centered over the Deep South. Local KMLB radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms to the south of I-4. However, that will likely change soon with outflow from previous storms moving north and west of I-4 where scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast to develop into this evening (PoPs ~ 60-70%). Rain shower and storm chances are expected to diminish after sunset and into the overnight hours. Hi-res guidance indicates the potential for scattered showers and lightning storms to develop along a convergent line (extending from what`s left of Invest AL92) overnight into early Sunday over the local Atlantic waters. Southeast winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph as the sea breeze pushes inland into this evening are expected to become light and variable overnight. Sunday... An early start to scattered onshore moving showers (PoPs ~ 40-50%) and lightning storms are forecast Sunday morning along the Treasure Coast. Showers and storms are forecast to develop and increase in coverage into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the weaker west coast sea breeze, as well as outflow from previous storms. Southeast winds will increase into the afternoon with the sea breeze at around 8-12 mph with gusts to 20mph. The main hazards associated with lightning storms will be wind gusts up to around 30-35mph, locally heavy rainfall with minor flooding potential of the typical areas (1-3" in a short period of time), and frequent lightning strikes. Rain shower and storm chances dwindle after sunset (PoPs ~20-30%). Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100-107 degree range are forecast under partly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Monday-Friday (modified previous discussion)... Not much change for the upcoming week with daily diurnally sea breeze driven showers and lightning storms expected to develop each afternoon. Mid level ridging stays in place across the southern tier of the U.S. while sfc flow becomes SW to W as ridge axis slips south of the area. This offshore flow will not be strong so the Atlc sea breeze will be able to form each day, producing a SE wind off the ocean. Deep moisture with precip water values of 2+" will support scattered to numerous aftn storms and into the evening. While this pattern will provide some needed rain for those who still need/want it, some areas will get too much with a minor flooding potential of typical areas (1-3" in a short period of time). The main lighting storm hazards will be wind gusts up to 30-35mph, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning strikes. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm with high dewpoints. Max temps in the lower 90s near the coast (due to the slightly delayed sea breeze) and mid 90s inland will produce peak heat indices 102 to 107. Overnight temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Currently-Tonight... Invest 92L remains to the north of the local Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast over the local Atlantic into Sunday morning. The main hazards will be wind gusts up to 30-35mph, moderate to heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. South to southeast winds at 10-15kts are forecast to decrease to 5-10kts overnight. Seas are forecast to build to 2-3ft nearshore and up to 4ft offshore. Sunday-Wednesday (previous discussion)... High pressure centered offshore over the Atlantic will produce a southerly flow this weekend 7-10 knots, enhanced from the SE 10-14 knots behind the sea breeze near the coast. The trailing ridge axis will shift south across the waters early next week ahead of a weak front. As a result, sfc wind flow will develop a more offshore (southwest to west) component but the sea breeze will be able to form each day. Deep moisture will remain place keeping rain and storm chances high with offshore moving storms a concern next week. Seas 3-4 FT today subsiding 2-3 FT Sun then 2 FT Tue-Wed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions forecast outside of convection. Ongoing shower and storm development across southern portions of ECFL will expand northwestward towards the interior terminals. TEMPOs in effect at MLB and TIX through 20Z, with TEMPOs at the interior terminals between 19 to 23Z for MVFR VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Lingering VCSH along the coast will diminish after 00Z, with conditions across the interior improving after 03Z. Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight, picking back up out of the south between 5 to 10 knots tomorrow morning after 15Z. Another day of showers and storms is forecast for tomorrow, with VCSH at the coastal terminals after 16Z. Activity will expand towards the interior in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 90 75 92 / 50 70 30 60 MCO 75 90 75 92 / 50 70 30 70 MLB 75 90 74 90 / 40 60 30 60 VRB 75 89 74 90 / 30 60 30 60 LEE 76 91 76 92 / 60 70 30 70 SFB 75 91 75 93 / 50 70 30 70 ORL 76 91 75 92 / 50 70 30 70 FPR 75 89 73 90 / 30 60 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fehling AVIATION...Tollefsen