818
FXUS63 KMQT 141127
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
727 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through Saturday before the return of showers and
  thunderstorms later in the weekend.

- Warmer than normal next week with frequent chances for showers
  and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The short quiet period has begun, welcoming in the weekend. Current
RAP analysis shows the shortwave trough (responsible for yesterday`s
shower and storm activity) axis centered just east of the northern
Ontario and Quebec province line with a ridge over the Rockies and a
trough over the southern CA and AZ state line. Sfc high pressure
currently expanding over much of central Canada and down in to the
northern Plains is progged to shift east through tonight, compressing
over northern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region. Meanwhile,
the mid level ridge to the west moves east, building over the the
Great Lakes region. With mostly clear skies across the UP now, temps
have dropped into the 40s in the interior with low to mid 50s along
the lakeshores. These low dew point depressions and calm conditions
have allowed for some patchy fog to develop in the west, this should
mix out this morning with diurnal heating.

Temps today will be cooler than yesterday with interior highs mainly
in the low to mid 70s. Those along Lake Superior, especially in the
east, will see cooler temps in the 60s with the eastern shores
expected to stay in the 50s. Some diurnal cu in the interior west is
possible in the afternoon with some upslope support and moisture
advection from the Lake Michigan Lake breeze; a lake breeze is also
expected off Lake Superior this afternoon. RHs look to fall into the
40s and 30s, but with light winds mainly below 15 mph and antecedent
rainfall, wildfire conditions should be benign to end the work week
and begin the weekend.

Mostly clear skies tonight will provide another radiative cooling
period for the UP. While the airmass is not particularly dry for
ideal cooling, drier PWATs noted over the east (0.65" to 0.7") will
help temps settle into the low to mid 40s; lows in the mid 40s to
low 50s are expected in the west half where PWATs are around 0.9".
With the sfc high pressure becoming centered just north of Lake
Huron by Saturday morning at around 1012 mb per the 6/14 0z HREF
mean, winds are expected become near calm over the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Dry weather continues for most of Saturday with the midlevel ridge
sliding over the area supporting surface high pressure centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. However, another shortwave will be rippling
out of the Plains, with a tightening pressure gradient resulting in
increasing southerly winds for the afternoon. Expect wind gusts to
around 20 mph for most of the UP, and as soundings at least across
the eastern UP remain quite dry and well-mixed, we could be flirting
with some fire weather concerns as RH drops below 40%.

That said, cloud cover will be on the increase throughout the day
ahead of the approaching wave. With strengthening theta-e advection
into the evening on the nose of a developing 40-45kt LLJ, chances
for showers and rumbles of thunder sneak into the western UP by
early evening. PoPs increase overnight into Sunday morning as the
shortwave moves across the UP and Lake Superior. Guidance is coming
into agreement on the LLJ further increasing to as high as 50-60kts,
so while the timing of the passing wave (early in the day Sunday)
would be unfavorable for strong/severe surface-based convection,
this impressive lift and elevated instability could still be
supportive of stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail. Will
note a potential for heavy rain as well, with PWATs exceeding 1.5in
and soundings quite saturated. Temperatures, meanwhile, will be on
the increase Sunday, in spite of the round of rainfall early in the
day; expect highs ranging in the 70s in the eastern UP where rain
may be lingering into the afternoon while the western UP climbs as
high as the mid 80s.

Warm and unsettled weather will continue into next week. Monday
through midweek, the Great Lakes will be situated between high-
amplitude ridging over the Eastern Seaboard and deep troughing over
the Rockies. Persistent southerly flow into the area will continue
to pump in a warm, moist airmass; look for highs Monday and Tuesday
to range well into the 80s for most of the area and even nearer to
90F in the typically warmer southerly downsloping spots. With
dewpoints well into the 60s, it is looking pretty muggy. Given this
unstable airmass and our area situated on the perimeter of the
ridge, passing weak waves will leave us with chances for showers and
storms Monday and Tuesday. Winds should also become more
elevated Tuesday as a midlevel shortwave ripples out of the
Rockies with a surface low likewise closing off and heading into
the Northern Plains, leading to a tightening pressure gradient
over the area. Another strengthening LLJ may provide the lift
needed for some additional convection Tuesday night into
Wednesday while the surface low moves through Ontario. From
midweek onward, temperatures trend more towards normal while the
pattern governing the early part of the week breaks down. Look
for hit and miss rain chances the rest of the period with
sporadic shortwave activity amid generally zonal midlevel flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 726 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all sites throughout the durration of
the 12Z TAF period as high pressure moves east over the Upper Great
Lakes. Light northerly winds are generally expected today, but the
Lake Superior lake breeze will provide some wind shifts in the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

High pressure ridging over the Great Lakes will lead to tranquil
conditions today and into the early part of the weekend. Winds come
in at or below 10kts today, turning mainly out of the NE in western
Lake Superior and eventually backing more WNW across the eastern
half of the lake. Winds mainly out of the SE Saturday will be on the
increase by the late afternoon, gusting up to 20 knots in the
eastern half of the lake. Winds gusts to 20-25kts will be possible
Sunday, then winds fall back below 20 kts Monday before increasing
out of the SSE again Tuesday. Waves should generally be below 3ft
for most of the period, but are expected to increase to around 3-4ft
especially across the eastern half of the lake Sunday and
Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...LC