458
FXUS64 KOHX 050532
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Showers have moved out of the CWA for the time being. 12 hour
rain totals have ranged from just a few hundredths to some
isolated spots of 1.5-2 inches according to radar estimates. More
activity is expected after midnight starting in the west and
spreading eastward. It is still moist out there with the 00z OHX
sounding showing a Pwat of 1.65" which is around the 90th
percentile for this time of year. CAMS have even more moisture
advecting into the area after midnight with PWAT values in some
spots west of I-65 climbing closer to 1.9" which would be closer
to the daily max value. The overnight activity should be
progressive enough to pose much of a flash flooding threat but
some heavy downpours leading to ponding will be possible. The
forecast is on track and no major changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A long wave trough is setting up over the Central US with the
trough axis over North Dakota. This will push a few short waves
over us today and will bring periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The first round of thunderstorms is making it`s way
through the area. Overall it has been mainly showers but we are
starting to see a few more thunderstorms pop up. This trend Will
continue as it pushes east. Additional showers and thunderstorms
may develop behind that line during the afternoon. Then it looks
like we will get a break for a time in the evening before more
scattered activity pushes in overnight. Meso-Analysis shows
500-1000 j/kg of MLCAPE over the area and that will remain in
place into the evening. Lapse rates are not great and 0-6 km shear
is on the low side, overall the threat for strong storms is low
but still can`t rule out an isolated storm or two with gusty winds
and some hail. With PWATs above 1.70" heavy rain and possibly
some flash flooding will be the main concern with any convection.

The upper level trough will push east into the Great Lakes on
Wednesday pushing a cold front into our region. We`ll see
scattered activity in the morning as higher moisture advects into
the area. CAMs are not overly excited with the forcing with the
front but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely along
and ahead of it for the afternoon and early evening. We do see an
increase in 0-6 km shear pushing above 20 knots but lapse rates
remain poor and soundings are on the saturated side. This will
keep strong to severe thunderstorm chances low but similar to
today, can`t rule out isolated gusty winds or some hail with any
stronger cells. PWATs will remain very high above 1.70" keeping
the heavy rain and possible flash flooding the main concern with
convection. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing Wednesday night as
the front works east through the area. Drier air will build in
throughout the day on Thursday but it will remain warm with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Then we will see some great weather late
week into the weekend as troughing sets up over the Northeast and
strong ridging builds over the West. That will bring comfortable
dew points, dry weather, and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Dew
points come up just a bit Sunday into next week and we start to
see some instability return to the area. There won`t be much in
the way of forcing but maybe a few pop up afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible. Highs will remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period although MVFR vis will
affect CSV early in the TAF period, with MVFR cigs at all airports for
a few hours later this morning. SHRA/VCTS will impact CKV this
morning, all airports between 14-20Z, then a low probability of
additional activity later today. Light south/southeast winds this
morning will increase and become southwest during the day today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  68  87  62 /  90  70   0   0
Clarksville    81  64  85  59 /  90  40   0   0
Crossville     79  63  80  55 /  80  90  30   0
Columbia       84  67  87  60 /  90  60   0   0
Cookeville     81  66  82  57 /  80  90  20   0
Jamestown      80  64  80  56 /  90  80  20   0
Lawrenceburg   84  67  86  60 /  90  70  10   0
Murfreesboro   85  66  87  59 /  90  80  10   0
Waverly        81  65  85  59 /  90  40   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Shamburger