926
FXUS64 KOHX 021155
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
655 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The low pressure system that produced showery and cloudy conditions
yesterday will continue to generate scattered showers and perhaps
a rumble of thunder through this morning, mainly for areas east
of I-65. By afternoon, high pressure will begin to move in from
the west and we see more sunshine than yesterday with much warmer
temperatures. Even though the bulk of the showers will move east
of our area, a few showers or storms could still bubble up in the
warm and humid air mass that will be in place this afternoon.

Generally quiet wx is expected tonight through Monday as a mid
level ridge builds up over the area. A stray shower or
thunderstorm could occur this evening and again Monday, but most
areas will be rain-free. Monday will be a very warm day with the
ridge overhead and southerly low level winds. Temperatures will
reach the 80s area-wide with some spots possibly topping 90.

Good news is any thunderstorms through the next couple of days
will pose little risk for severe wx. Brief downpours and lightning
will be the main concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue Monday night
and Tuesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
as another disturbances drifts across the area. A strong storm or
2 with downpours and gusty winds cannot be ruled out in the heat
of the day Tuesday, but there is still no support for widespread
or organized severe wx.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase further
Wednesday into Thursday as a more significant shortwave trough
brings a cold front toward the area. Wednesday afternoon and
evening will bring the greatest potential for some strong storms
with gusty winds and heavy rain, but not seeing indications of a
big severe event at this time.

Passage of the cold front Thursday will be followed by a shot of
cooler and drier air for the weekend. Some models show a
completely rain-free weekend while some models indicate some
shower and thunderstorm chances as disturbances come our way in
northwest flow aloft. It will be a big weekend for outdoor events,
so hopefully models will come into better focus as we go through
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

With no lightning noted, mentioned only periodic prevailing shwrs
SRB/CSV thru 02/14Z with IFR/MVFR ceilings. Otherwise VCSH SRB
thru 02/22Z and CSV 03/00Z. Continued with VCSH CKV/BNA/MQY thru
02/16Z as some vcnty shwrs potentially. Mixture of IFR/MVFR
ceilings expected with ceiling erosion CKV/BNA/MQY by 02/18Z &
SRB/CSV no later than 03/00Z. Slow veering from SW to NW/N thru
03/00. Did address light backing winds at terminals around 03/06Z.
MVFR fog formation possible SRB/CSV 03/10Z-03/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  66  89  68 /  20  10  20  20
Clarksville    83  64  87  67 /  10  10  20  20
Crossville     75  60  81  63 /  60  20  20  10
Columbia       84  64  87  68 /  20  10  20  20
Cookeville     77  62  83  65 /  50  20  20  10
Jamestown      76  61  82  63 /  60  30  20  10
Lawrenceburg   82  64  86  68 /  20  10  20  20
Murfreesboro   84  64  87  68 /  20  10  20  10
Waverly        84  64  87  68 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright