654
FXUS64 KOUN 031802
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
102 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon
Jun 3 2024

Ongoing convection continues along and just south of I-40 from
Hobart to Prague. This convection consists of weak cells loosely
organized into an MCS that is propagating south-southeastward along
the leading edge of the cold pool. No severe weather is anticipated
with this activity, but periods of heavy rain and frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning are expected with this cluster as it continues on
its merry way.

Concern is increasing for convective potential this afternoon and
evening to the west of the current storms. Satellite, radar, and
surface observations show an outflow boundary extending from the
western edge of convection back to the northwest toward a triple
point low near Borger. Closer to storms off to the east, this
outflow is still making steady southward progress toward the Red
River, and will probably clear into western north Texas by this
afternoon. However, with convection on the decrease in western
Oklahoma, there`s concern that this boundary will begin to slow and
stall this afternoon.

If and when this occurs, the environment along and immediately on
the cool side of the boundary will be highly concerning for
potential severe weather. Short-range guidance suggests MLCAPE may
reach 6,000 J/kg, and while deep-layer winds will be on the
modest side of things, easterly surface wind enhancement along
the boundary will lend itself to about 35-45 knots of effective
bulk shear, 30 knots of which can be found in the lowest 3 km. All
of this paints the picture of a conditional, highly localized,
but potentially significant threat for severe weather. Any
supercells that do develop along and just northeast of the outflow
boundary this evening will be capable of large to giant hail from
2 to 4 inches in diameter. A relatively focused threat for
tornadoes is also possible along the boundary this evening with
ambient environmental vorticity, modest enhancement from the LLJ,
and strong low-level instability. The threat from these storms
should begin to diminish not long after sunset as surface-based
capping returns.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Complex, low confidence forecast continues today.

Still appears that a complex of storms will slide south out of
Kansas into northern Oklahoma around sunrise and then translate
south/southeast through the morning hours. Some severe will be
possible with this activity. This activity will also likely produce
an outflow boundary that will act as a focus for additional
convective development as we approach midday or early afternoon.
Exactly where this boundary will be is a tough question to answer,
but could be somewhere from east-central or southeast into central
then back northwest into northern Oklahoma. Abundant instability
will be in place by this time for any storm that does develop to be
severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall will
also be a concern as precipitable water remain high.

Models also continue to show scattered afternoon activity farther
west, near the dryline as well. More concentrated late today and
evening convection may develop across northern Oklahoma, which then
moves south/southeast across portions of central into southeast
Oklahoma Monday night.

Otherwise, expected precip and cloud cover to keep temps a few
degrees cooler today, much like yesterday, than what was expected a
day or two ago. However, out west, where more insolation may occur,
afternoon temps may climb well into the 90s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

May catch a break for much of the day on Tuesday with regards to
storms. However, a shortwave trough will move through the northern
and central Plains during the day and the associated surface front
will move south toward the area late in the day and Tuesday night.
Storms along this boundary to our north during the day will develop
further south, into Oklahoma by Tuesday evening. Main impacts will
be across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma. This activity will
move out of southeast Oklahoma by early Wednesday morning.

In the wake of this system, mid-level ridging will build into the
Plains for mid/late week which should limit overall rain chances and
temperatures will rise. However we will be on the fringe of
northwest flow and models do depict a surface front working south
into the area. Models do differ with regards to potential impacts
and timing of these impacts. GFS becomes more aggressive with rain
chances Thursday and Friday near this boundary, where the ECMWF has
a bit more dominate ridge and washes this boundary out with another
dropping south into the area by late in the weekend. ECMWF develops
more precip with this second front, keeping the late week period
much warmer and drier than the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Showers & thunderstorms across southcentral Oklahoma will be
moving into southeast Oklahoma and south of the Red River into
northern Texas, which will be affecting terminals KSPS & KDUA
through 22Z maintaining MVFR conditions there. Our terminals
across northern Oklahoma will remain under VFR conditions at least
through 01Z, while our remaining terminals will be trending toward
MVFR conditions after 21Z. Another MCS coming down from the High
Plains could impact terminals generally along and south of I-40
between 03-12Z. The MCS combined with lowering stratus could
reduce terminals from MVFR to periods of IFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  69  91  70 /  90  40  10  50
Hobart OK         93  68  97  68 /  50  20   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  93  71  97  72 /  30  20   0  20
Gage OK           92  65  94  64 /  80  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     84  67  88  66 /  70  30  20  60
Durant OK         86  70  89  73 /  60  30   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68