301
FXUS63 KPAH 100656
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
156 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spectacular weather is in store for the first half of the
  week, with comfortable temperatures and refreshing humidity
  levels.

- Heat and humidity will arrive for the second half of the week
  through next weekend. The hottest temperatures of the season
  are forecast Thursday-Sunday.

- Dry weather is expected for the next several days, with the
  next chance of rain not forecast until very late next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Today through Tuesday night...A refreshing airmass associated
with an area of Canadian high pressure is slowly filtering
southward into the region. Lingering low-level moisture across
southern parts of southeast MO, far southern IL, and western KY
have resulted in patchy fog formation, especially in the
southern KY Pennyrile and Ozark Foothill river valleys. Have
hoisted an SPS for locally dense fog for these areas through
11z, but if dense fog coverage increases, a Dense Fog Advisory
may be needed later this morning.

The first two days of the work week will be about as nice as it
gets for our part of the world in early June. Temperatures today will
climb into the middle to upper 70s with very comfortable
humidity levels. A passing H5 ripple of energy will bring an
increase in cloud cover this afternoon, but the low levels will
be very dry, suppressing any precipitation development. Low
temperatures tonight will fall into the lower to middle 50s.
Some areas in the Wabash Valley could even see lows dip into
the upper 40s! Tuesday will see more of the same, with highs in
the middle to upper 70s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows
Tuesday night will be slightly warmer, in the middle to upper
50s.

Wednesday through Sunday...A return to more typical summertime
weather will begin Wednesday. Surface high pressure will
translate east of the region. While the region will stay dry,
southerly return flow will advect increasing amounts of heat and
moisture into the region. High temperatures on Wednesday will be
several degrees warmer, reaching the middle to upper 80s.
Humidity levels will still be tolerable, and overnight lows
Wednesday night will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For Thursday through Sunday, a more intense H5 ridge looks to
build over the region from the central Great Plains.
Temperatures at both 850 mb and 700 mb will rise to around the
95th percentile via the 12z/09 NAEFS ensemble guidance. This
will result in the hottest temperatures of the season so far
late this week. NBM ensemble guidance gives a 30-50% chance of
high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees on Thursday, and a 70-90%
chance on Friday. The ridging may relax slightly on Saturday,
but most areas will still have a 50-80% of exceeding 90 degrees
for daytime highs. The ridging will intensify on Sunday, with a
70-100% of highs in the 90s.

Dew point temperatures Thursday through Sunday will climb from
the lower to middle 60s on Thursday, to the middle to upper 60s
on Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, dew point temperatures will
be in the lower to middle 70s (sultry!). Our first triple digit
heat index values of the season appear likely during this
period.

Our next chance of mentionable precipitation arrives late Sunday
night into early next week. Model guidance is hinting at the
potential for tropical moisture to be drawn northward from the
Gulf of Mexico in the area, bringing increasing PoPs from south
to north. The details of the duration and intensity of this
rainfall will become more clear in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A finishing fropa has already scooted showers to the south and
east of the terminals and drier air incoming will scour out
remaining clouds. However, recent rainfall may allow the
clearing skies/diminishing winds to allow for fog tonight, but
dew points will be lowering as well. Will include some mention
at this issuance where conditions/site are favorable and then
monitor for potential changes either direction next issuance.
Despite high pressure building into the MS Valley with time,
gridded time/height cross sections suggest SCT-BKN diurnal bases
are possible tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DH