328
FXUS63 KPAH 281756
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will increase in coverage over the weekend
  and continue through Monday. Torrential downpours, lightning,
  and some gusty winds will be possible.

- Independence Day looks seasonal with highs in the lower 90s
  and a 20% chance for a shower or storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

We finally break our consecutive day stretch of extreme
heat/indices in the triple digits this weekend as pops will
surge ahead of falling/lower heights and an eventual cold front
taking shape that drops into and potentially thru the area by
mid week. The higher pops this weekend will still feature
locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds, but
widespread severe weather is not anticipated. High PW`s around
2" will hold thru the weekend/into Monday. Shear is
weak/minimal. But the heavy rain potential is real with a
marginal risk of associated flooding progged by WPC, here it
will likely be localized but still something to keep an eye upon
if storms repeat over the same areas or get hung up over one
particular area, which could result in localized flooding.

The models insist the front makes its passage Monday night-
Tuesday. Pops may linger, but eventually, with fropa, we see a
drier mid week with dew points in the 70s falling back into the
60s, albeit upper half. It`ll still feel like a relief from the
recent heat, with slightly lower humidity levels and highs in
the upper 80s instead of 90s. Pops pick up a little again by the
end of the week, but morese a diurnal pop as heat/humidity
starts to build back in a lttle with 90/70 reentering the
forecast pic for highs/dew points.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Most TSRA coverage has ended, at least near the terminals this
afternoon. While convective overturning has mostly stabilized
the boundary layer, additional convection has developed to the
west across southern Missouri. Low confidence but can`t
completely rule out this activity moving east this afternoon and
maintained TEMPO groups for CGI/PAH, and PROB30`s for EVV/OWB.
Much of tonight will likely remain dry but additional
convection is expected to move into the region from the west by
Sunday morning with additional TSRA chances. Southwesterly flow
around 5 knots can be expected through tonight and into Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Previous Fcter
AVIATION...AD