Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 152304

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
604 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The mid level flow pattern across the eastern half of the CONUS
will change in the short term with a rainfall event. High surface
pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS will continue to
move eastward, while shortwave energy on the western side of a
dominant Canadian vortex descends southward. This energy will be a
motivator for southward movement of the west-to-east surface
front/ convergence boundary progged to set up tonight in the I-64

Ahead of an approaching stacked low pressure area exiting the
central Plains, low level moisture will be drawn up over the wedge
of cooler air near the surface early Fri, resulting in rain
showers spreading gradually eastward during the day. Isolated
tstms are possible late Fri afternoon and evening, and possibly
just after midnight in the far east. Driven by positive vorticity
advection ahead of the low Fri night, high bulk shear values will
combine with low level helicity but limited instability to create
a marginal risk for severe weather over southeastern MO and far
western KY, associated with widely scattered tstms. Sat will be
relatively mild and breezy but mostly cloudy in the wake of the
departing system.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

High pressure will be moving off to our east on Sunday.  By Sunday
night, low pressure over the Central Plains will be sliding east,
moving into the lower/middle Mississippi valley by 00z Tuesday.
ECMWF is faster than the GFS in spreading showers into the PAH
forecast area Sunday night, and included just slight to low chances
for showers mainly after 06z Monday.  Showers will become widespread
on Monday, and included slight chances for thunderstorms during the
day Monday with the low`s close proximity to our region.  The low
will move east of the PAH fa by 12z Tuesday, and we should see
slowly decreasing shower chances from west to east Monday night into
Tuesday.  For now kept some low chances for showers in our far east
counties Tuesday night, mainly during the evening hours.
Temperatures will remain mild Sunday into Monday, then cooler
conditions will filter in behind the surface low for Tuesday.

Models are hinting at a weak upper level wave moving across the
region late Wednesday into Wednesday night.  The previous ECMWF
tried to produce a little QPF with this wave, but the latest run is
now drier, and GFS keeps us precipitation free, so it looks like a
dry result at this point.  Temperatures will remain cooler than
normal through Thursday.


Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Ridge topping mid to high clouds will remain scattered this
evening, spilling overtop the ridge from our next weather maker
taking shape out in the Plains. As the night progresses, it
develops a warm front that lifts across the area, which will begin
to warm and moisten the column. Lowering bases will include
developing VFR cigs in the mid cloud range, then by morning,
restricted bases will be coming into play from the south and west,
as the moisture advection ahead of the system/in the warm sector
activates in earnest. MVFR bases will spread across the entire
flight forecast area, with spotty shower chances developing as
well. By the pm hours, instability will become marginally
supportive for thunder in the south, mainly toward/just beyond the
effective valid time (into the evening). To account, we introduced
some IFR scattered bases with another chance of diurnally
enhanced vsby restricting showers, for KCGI/KPAH.




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