520
FXUS63 KPAH 092321
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will come to an end this evening as a front
  moves across the region. A much cooler night is in store with
  low temperatures falling into the upper 50s.

- High pressure builds over the region to start off the week
  allowing for below normal temperatures to continue. Dry
  weather and a warming trend then is expected through the
  middle of the week with highs reaching the low 90s by late
  week.

- Rain chances overall are very minimal through at least the
  first half of next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A cold front will slowly sag south through this evening as one
final cluster of showers are now moving across the FA. Brief
heavy downpours are possible, but these should not cause any
additional flooding issues. The CAMs have struggled a bit with
the northern extent pcpn, as it will not be until tonight when
the PoPs are silent over the entire FA. Have bumped down NBM
maxTs a few degrees this afternoon as the additional pcpn will
keep temps a bit cooler. After fropa, skies will clear out
tonight allowing for the boundary layer to decouple. Due to dry
air advection from the north, there is not a strong signal for
patchy fog, but cannot entirely rule it out near the TN border
where the dewpoint depression will be a bit lower. Radiational
cooling will allow for minTs to fall into the upper 50s.

The week will start off with tranquil conditions as sfc high
pressure builds over the FA with troughing aloft. Temps will
initially be about 5-10 degrees below normal with maxTs in the
upper 70s to near 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday and minTs in
the 50s. Would not be surprised to see one or two locations
briefly hit the upper 40s Tuesday morning. Temps then moderate
closer to normal through the middle of the week as high
pressure shifts east allowing for southerly return flow that
will advect in a much warmer and moist airmass. By Thursday and
Friday, slightly above normal maxTs are progged by the NBM to
reach the low 90s as a cut off low off the California coast
eventually ejects east and causes a ridge axis to build over the
FA for the upcoming weekend. This will allow for the warmer and
more humid conditions to prevail.

There is one caveat to the forecast as the GFS/CMC are hinting
at the possibility of a backdoor cold front on Friday with a
trough digging across the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF is not as amplified, but has trended more south with the
front. This could briefly provide some relief to the
unseasonably warm conditions, but confidence is not the
greatest. While NBM PoPs are mostly silent, the GEFS does show a
30-60% probability of seeing measurable light QPF with the
highest amounts along I-64, while the EPS/GEPS are more in the
10-30% range. It is worth noting that the following week may
feature a more robust chance for pcpn with tropical moisture to
the south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A finishing fropa has already scooted showers to the south and
east of the terminals and drier air incoming will scour out
remaining clouds. However, recent rainfall may allow the
clearing skies/diminishing winds to allow for fog tonight, but
dew points will be lowering as well. Will include some mention
at this issuance where conditions/site are favorable and then
monitor for potential changes either direction next issuance.
Despite high pressure building into the MS Valley with time,
gridded time/height cross sections suggest SCT-BKN diurnal bases
are possible tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$