Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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848 FXUS63 KPAH 090853 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A front will bring showers through this afternoon, especially over southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois and far western Kentucky. - The risk for flash flooding remains the greatest in the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri. A Flood Watch remains in effect from this through 1 PM this afternoon as 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected with additional rounds of storms. - Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the week ahead with highs reaching the low 90s by late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 At this time, showers are making their way into Southeast Missouri. Stronger storms are located northwest towards Kansas. A few showers are also forming in Southern Illinois where MLCAPE of 500+ J/kg remains. Rainfall rates are lower than the earlier storms, and severe weather potential has diminished. Northerly winds are providing convergent surface flow towards the boundary, fueling the rain potential. CAMs indicate that showers and storms will continue through the day today, with the better heavy rain and thunderstorms more likely to occur during the morning hours. The Flood Watch was trimmed on the eastern side leaving the western six counties of SEMO which may receive 1-2 inches of additional rain with locally higher amounts. CAMs are in fairly strong agreement on 8z-onward totals. PWs around 2 inches through the early morning are at or above the 99th percentile, so heavy rates have potential to be the driver of flooding issues rather than just total rainfall. Model soundings suggest enough shear and CAPE for a few strong storms and a severe storm is possible. A marginal risk of severe weather covers much of SEMO and part of far Western Kentucky. Dry weather is expected for the week ahead. Initially, temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs in the upper half of the 70s to lower 80s Monday as northerly flow brings in cooler air as a mid-level trough digs into the Midwest. As this trough slides to the east, high pressure moves in on Tuesday. With high pressure shifting to the east, light southerly flow brings in warmer and moister air, with temperatures rising to the lower 90s late week. The latest NBM removed the pockets of slight chance PoPs late week. While a few ensemble members and deterministic runs include precip chances, such as the GFS Thursday evening, broad model support is lacking to justify deviating from the NBM for now. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers with isolated lightning continue to move through Southeast Missouri and nearby areas with the stronger storms exiting the region. MVFR cigs will move from north to south during the overnight hours through tomorrow morning. Additional showers and storms move in from the west tonight, continuing through tomorrow. The best chance for thunderstorms and heavy rain is in Southeast Missouri and far Western Kentucky. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ086-100- 107>110. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...ATL