Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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896 FXUS63 KPAH 272338 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 638 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated weak convection possible until sunset across our southern service area. - Mainly dry and seasonable conditions Tuesday through Thursday. - Late week through next weekend chances for showers and storms return to the region. && .UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Rest of this afternoon...can`t rule out isolated weak convection across the southern service area where surface heating has contributed to a weakening cap with more moderate cumulus development noted within an axis of better low level moisture (surface dew points mid 60s to around 70) in closer proximity to a weak cool front/ wind shift. Any activity and diurnal cumulus should dissipate with sunset. Attention then shifts upstream where a shortwave was dropping southward across portions of Minnesota and northern Iowa. This was producing widely scattered convection as far south as northern portions of Missouri. As this tracks southeastward tonight, there is low potential for a stray shower for northern parts of the service area by mid to late evening. However, the main forcing looks to pass well to our north, and coupled with the loss of daytime heating leads to very low confidence for any mentionable PoPs at this time. Thereafter, the region looks to remain in cyclonic flow on the western flank of a broad eastern CONUS trough through mid-week. This will foster mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. The models suggest a weak transitory bout of mid level ridging will build in late week and keep much of the region dry. However, heading into next weekend the ridge breaks down and will give way to zonal flow. This will open the region to periodic shortwaves, and while timing/location is difficult at this range due to the low amplitude nature of these waves, it does appear we`ll see increasing chances for showers and storms during this period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A few showers and a stray lightning flash or two accompany a band of VFR height clouds moving into northwestern portions of the Quad State early evening, with activity diminishing quickly. Winds will calm for the overnight hours, then become breezy out of the northwest tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...WFO DVN AVIATION...ATL