991
FXUS65 KPUB 230528
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures heat up through next week with readings 100-105
  degrees across the portions of southeast plains with hottest
  days Monday and Tuesday.

- At least isolated thunderstorms possible each day, mainly over
  the mountains

- Another uptick in thunderstorms possible late week with
  another influx of subtropical moisture and potential cold
  front next Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Clouds have hung in across the San Luis Valley today which has
slowed afternoon heating. Dew points are still in the mid 50s as
of 20z with temperatures in the low 70s. Elsewhere temperatures
have warmed into the 80s to mid 90s across the lower elevations
under persistent mid/high cloud cover. Afternoon heating and a
weak disturbance moving through westerly flow aloft into
northwest CO has triggered isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the mountains, with best coverage along the
Continental Divide. SPC mesoanalysis shows some stout SBCAPE
across the San Luis Valley (up to 2000 J/kg) but MLCAPE is
considerably less (under 1000 J/kg). Even out west, dew points
have maintained in the 40s across the Eastern San Juan and La
Garita mountains while falling into the 20s and 30s farther
north across Lake and Chaffee Counties under the drier airmass.
With deep layer shears running around 30-40 kts, still think
there is a window for an isolated strong storm across the
southwest mountains and San Luis Valley if sufficient
instability can be realized. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph,
small hail and locally heavy rainfall would be the primary storm
risks through early evening. Most showers and thunderstorms
will hug the higher terrain, but some CAMS models do push a
couple storms into the I-25 corridor this evening. Dew points
are quite a bit lower east of the mountains with inverted V
soundings indicating more of a gusty erratic wind risk for the
I-25 corridor. Again, cells should be isolated with best chances
south of highway 50.

Convection will die off with loss of heating this evening with a
warm night under some residual high cloud cover expected.
Sunday will be a few degrees warmer as the upper ridge builds
over the region. Shallow mid/high level moisture may be enough
for some isolated high based thunderstorms over the mountains
and along the surface trough axis across the far southeast
plains. Gusty erratic winds up to 45 mph will be the primary
storm risk. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Main story for the long term will be the building heat over the
region through the early part of the week as the upper high over
the southwest and south central U.S. remains firmly in place and
builds northward again into Tuesday. Temperatures both days will
reach the 100-105 degree range across the lower elevations of
the southeast plains and we could be flirting with Heat
Advisories once again for portions of the I-25 corridor and
lower Arkansas region. Elsewhere, temperatures in the valleys
will climb well into the 80s with 60s and 70s for the higher
elevations. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast as
pulses of modest mid/high level moisture rotate through the
upper high. But thunderstorms continued inverted V soundings
suggest gusty winds and lightning will be the primary risks with
only spotty light rainfall possible.

Moisture increases from Wednesday through Friday as another
influx of subtropical moisture works its way northward with the
upper high. This will bring an uptick in showers and
thunderstorms to the region with better chances for some
measurable rainfall amounts. Increasing afternoon cloud cover
should shave a couple degrees off high temperatures but readings
will still be around 100 for portions of the lower Arkansas
River valley. The next meaningful front comes in late Friday
across the plains behind a trough passage to the north, which
may bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region for the
following weekend along with better chances for showers and
thunderstorms. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Some showers may linger in the vicinity of KPUB for a
few hours tonight, but no direct impacts to the terminal are
expected. Some guidance shows brief fog at KALS overnight
tonight, but current forecast guidance is too low to include in
this round of TAFs, will monitor for changes. Otherwise,
generally diurnal patterns expected the rest of this forecast
period. Some showers will form over the mountains tomorrow
afternoon, which could locally increase cloud cover close to the
21-00Z timeframe.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH