691
FXUS61 KRLX 222340
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
740 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Rain
chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 500 PM Wednesday...

Did increase pops across parts of SE Ohio and Northern WV later
this evening, as there is the potential for storms to refire
along the cold frontal boundary to our west this
afternoon/evening and potentially survive into our CWA.
Otherwise, the previous forecast was mainly on track.

As of 137 PM Wednesday...

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over southeast Ohio and
northeast Kentucky this afternoon. A slight risk of severe
weather remains in place from central WV to points north and
west with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and hail.
In this area, pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 kts of
0-6km bulk shear will support the development of a few stronger
storms. The overall best threat for severe weather today still
appears to be west of our region, across central Ohio and
central Kentucky, where more shear and instability will be
available.

There is the potential for another round of thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning as a shortwave approaches
from the southwest. Some uncertainty exists regarding the
strength of these storms, and that will depend on how much
energy is dampened by this afternoon`s convective activity. Some
models show any convection weakening to just showers as they
approach from the west by 03-06Z.

There will be another threat for stronger thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon with a marginal risk currently forecast by SPC. The
threat level appears to be lower than today with lower
instability and shear. The main threats appear to be wind and
hail once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

The front will stall over the area Thursday night into Friday,
then gradually lift back north as a warm front on Friday as a
shortwave moves along the front Friday afternoon into Saturday.
Models continue to struggle with the strength of the short
wave and how far north things get, but for now we bring low-end
likely POPs into the area Friday night.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Saturday or
Saturday night. With the parent low in southern Canada, only a
modest push of cold air is expected, but we should see a bit of
an enhancement again in storm chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Models show a system lifting from the midwest on Sunday into
the Great Lakes region on Monday. This will push a warm front
across the area on Sunday, followed by a cold front on Monday.
With systems nearly every day from later today into Monday, we
are getting increasingly concerned with the threat for flash
flooding to occur for Sunday and Monday. This will be followed
by an upper level wave on Tuesday in the significantly cooler
air. Models seem to have come into much better agreement for the
Sunday/Monday system, but still have differences during the
Tues/Wed time period. They generally agree on some upper-level
shortwave moving across, but differ a good deal on the timing
and amplitude, and thus the rain chances, so only Chance POPs
are in place to end the period for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 737 PM Wednesday...

Mainly VFR to start the TAF period. However, periods of showers
and storms will be possible overnight, creating brief MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty winds. However, outside of any
precipitation, fog or low stratus is possible overnight,
particularly after 09Z, and particularly near sites that
received precipitation earlier in the day.

There could be a brief period of improvement to VFR across much
of the area late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, but
another round of showers and storms will move from west to east
through the area particularly after 15-18Z, with local/brief
MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in vicinity of storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Uncertainty exists in the amount of
thunderstorm coverage overnight. Fog/low stratus tonight could
be worse, or more widespread than currently forecast. Timing of
storms on Thursday may vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...SL