Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 250736
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
236 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses today with limited moisture. Period of
NW flow and upslope rain and snow showers late today and tonight.
Cooler Sunday. Milder through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Saturday...

Southerly flow beginning to pick up across the middle Ohio River
Valley early this morning as a 30-40kt low level jet noses in.
Temperatures have already bottomed out in this area, where HTS
and PKB are in the mid 40s. Quite a bit cooler in valley
locations farther east where the atmosphere decoupled this
evening. Should get mixing going during the pre-dawn so have a
general warming trend taking over prior to sunrise.

A cold front will push through today. Low level moisture is
limited, so kept POPs dry with the frontal passage. Will see
stratus moving in however. Colder air filters in behind the
front under NW flow. This, combined with an upper level
shortwave trough should be enough to squeeze out what limited
moisture there is -- yielding some upslope rain showers,
changing over to snow showers as 850mb temps drop into the -4C
to -6C range late this evening and tonight. Have a half inch or
less snow accumulation along the higher ridges of the northern
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Upper trough exits towards Atlantic Canada, leaving the area
under control of high pressure and dry conditions through mid
week. Expect 500hPa heights to rebound, along with 850hPa
temperatures, resulting an a warmer than normal period for the
entire CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Digging 500hPa trough in the Great Lakes brings the next chances
for rain Thursday night, but there will be a question of
coverage and extent as the operational long term progs show the
cold front possibly shearing as the central area of low pressure
tracks from northern Minnesota into central Quebec, away from
the area. Capping POPs at chance for this period for now, with
temperatures modestly dropping back towards normal with a
Pacific airmass in its wake.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 AM Saturday...

High clouds beginning to move into the forecast area ahead of a
cold front. 850mb winds also picking up, with some 40kt winds
850mb winds across the Ohio River Valley and WV lowlands. Opted
to keep LLWS going as these winds max out from now to sunrise.

A cold front will push through today, with a period of MVFR
stratus. Behind the cold front, NW flow will keep stratus going
across the northern and eastern CWA, with some upslope rain
showers across the northern mountainous counties. These will
change over to mountain snow showers overnight. IFR expected in
these at higher elevations, but not at EKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of LLWS may vary as surface winds
begin picking up.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 11/25/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/26
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ


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