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000
FXUS61 KRLX 280659
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
259 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure brings dry weather through much of the
work week. Precipitation chances return ahead of a cold front
late this week. The front crosses through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Satellite imagery shows river valley fog is already developing along
the mountains and in the southern portion of the CWA. With mainly
clear skies and calm to light winds, fog may spread further across
the area prior to daybreak.

Any fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise, with quiet and
mostly sunny conditions then expected through the remainder of
the day as surface high pressure remains in control beneath
zonal upper level flow. While a shortwave is projected to pass
along the southern edge of the CWA tonight, high pressure
at the surface will continue to maintain dry weather across the
area.

Although today will be warmer than yesterday, temperatures are
expected to remain below normal. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s in the lowlands, with mid 60s to 70s across the higher
elevations. Tonight, temperatures should to be into the 50s across
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 257 AM Tuesday...

No major changes to previous forecast made. High pressure with dry
conditions and a gradual warming trend are expected through the
period. Fog possible in morning hours, particularly in favored river
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 257 AM Tuesday...

Deep southerly flow will bring abundant low level moisture Friday.
Diurnal heating will result in low chances for showers and storms
Friday afternoon and evening.

On Saturday, a cold front approaches from the northwest to provide
the needed forcing to increase showers and storms mainly in the
afternoon and evening. Guidance suggests the front crosses south
Saturday night, and becomes nearly stationary across our southern
counties Sunday. Models have the front oscillating over the area
through the beginning of next week keeping the environment unsettled
with showers and storms during the day and evening periods with
showers possible overnight.

An alternate scenario this far out will be that the front remains
south of the area Sunday keeping dry weather north of the boundary
through Tuesday.

Temperatures should be above normal on Friday with daytime readings
near normal Saturday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

VFR conditions are currently present at all sites, though satellite
imagery shows river valley fog has begun to develop. Fog is
expected to bring sub-VFR conditions to most sites overnight,
with greatest confidence in IFR or worse at CRW and EKN. CIGs/VIS
are expected to return to VFR as fog dissipates between 12-14Z.
VFR conditions then persist for the remainder of the TAF
period, though SCT high level clouds will drift through during
the day.

Calm winds should persist into the morning, then light and
variable winds generally under 10KTs are expected through the
day. Winds will then become calm to light again towards night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog. Otherwise, high confidence.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent, intensity, and duration may
vary from the current TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/28/22
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR due to river valley fog will be possible Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB