626
FXUS61 KRLX 110729 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
329 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure sustains dry weather through Thursday, then the
remnants of Hurricane Francine could potentially bring some
rain late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Wednesday...

High pressure retains control over the Central Appalachians and
Middle Ohio Valley, allowing dry weather to continue throughout
the near term forecast period. During this time, high level
clouds begin to spread into the area from the south as tropical
system Francine slowly eases toward the Gulf Coast.

Fire weather remains a concern as relative humidity once again
falls into the 20s to 30s this afternoon. However, much like
yesterday, this concern should be somewhat limited by light
winds.

Temperatures will climb above normal today, reaching mid to
upper 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the
mountains. Lows tonight then range from mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 AM Wednesday...

Dry airmass remains in place for Thursday, keeping the area rain-
free into Thursday night. Meanwhile, high clouds associated with
outer bands of Francine will invade the skies into Friday. Warm
afternoons still expected for Thursday and Friday, with temperatures
reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s
over the higher elevations of our northeast mountains.

By Thursday morning, Hurricane Francine is projected to weaken into
a tropical storm, weakening further into a tropical depression by
Thursday evening. This trend will break any organization of outer
bands associated with Francine, producing light QPF as these
features run out of forcing away from its center.

There are some uncertainty how much moisture Francine will bring to
our area Friday. Models have retracted some in their QPF fields,
with the exception of the Canadian model that persist with some
chances across extreme southern WV, NE KY and SW VA Friday night and
Saturday. Therefore, considering the Canadian solution an
outlier, reduced NBM`s PoPs across the area during the weekend.

H850 southeast winds 20-30 knots will produce surface east southeast
winds gusting 20 to 25 knots mainly along the eastern mountains
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 217 AM Wednesday...

Models are in better agreement, keeping moisture and precipitation
away from our area for the weekend. The only outlier is the Canadian
model that has been consistent bringing some QPF to our
southern zones.

Given the uncertainty, we will keep 15-20% PoPs over extreme
southern portions of the area this weekend, expecting to change
as the system shift east and continues to weaken. Near-normal
temperatures should prevail for the middle of September under
variable cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...

VFR is expected to persist for the majority of the TAF period. A
little fog could attempt to form in the river valleys before
sunrise, but confidence in fog impacting any terminals is low.

Calm to light flow persists into the morning, then winds should
remain light with an east to southeast direction during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog tonight. Otherwise, high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR conditions could occur at
EKN, possibly PKB, if fog develops early this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 09/11/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB