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000
FXUS61 KRLX 241213
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
813 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains dry weather through early Friday. Hot,
humid and stormy weather returns for the weekend and into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 810 AM Thursday...

Slightly increased temperatures for the morning to reflect
current observations. Otherwise, no significant changes are
needed this morning.

As of 445 AM Thursday...

Forecast on track. No significant changes required.

As of 120 AM Thursday...

Clear skies, light southerly winds and recent rainfall likely yields
at least some patchy valley fog by daybreak, especially in the more
protected mountain valleys. This quickly mixes out this morning.

High pressure slowly drifts east but remains in control through
the near term. Southerly flow around the western flank of the
anticyclone will yield warming temperatures day with highs reaching
the mid 80s across much of the lower elevations with mid 60s to
lower 70s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 342 AM Thursday...

Weather pattern remains slow with high pressure across the western
US, another one off the East Coast, and in between, a slow-
moving cold front expected to meander across the mid west Friday
through the weekend. It seems like the broad high pressure off
the East Coast will maintain its influence over the local region
through late Friday with mainly dry weather. Meanwhile, return
flow brings warmer and more humid conditions to the area more
prominent Saturday and Sunday. Therefore, expecting dry
conditions Friday and Friday night. Afternoon showers or storms
due to heating and abundant moisture will be possible during the
weekend as the cold front approaches slowly from the west. So,
coded low chance PoPs across southeast OH and eastern mountains
during the weekend.

Warm temperatures Friday ranging from mid to upper 80s lowlands,
to mid 60s higher elevations. Hot temperatures Saturday and
Sunday expected with spots reaching the lower 90s lowlands,
ranging into the upper 60s higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 342 AM Thursday...

Continuing hot and humid Monday with periods of showers or
storms possible. The slow-moving cold front finally reaches our
southeast OH counties warranting likely PoPs for now. This
system will provide unstable conditions to keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. At this point, the threat for
severe weather during the period looks to be relatively low, but
storms will contain heavy downpours and isolated water issues
cant be ruled out in areas that see repetitive downpours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 445 AM Thursday...

Aside from some patchy valley fog dissipating around 12Z this
morning, VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period at
all terminals. Winds generally south at 5-8KTs with some occasional
gusts into the teens this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR currently expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP