Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 181025
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
625 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today through Thursday. Low pressure Friday
through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 0625 AM wednesday...

No updates.

As of 1230 AM Wednesday...

Cold front has pushed east of the forecast area with drier air
moving in behind as surface high pressure sets up over the Great
Lakes. At the lower levels, there is some residual moisture
remaining, so valley fog will be around during the morning
hours.

Plenty of sunshine will be on tap today to help mix out the
boundary layer for an early burn-off of any morning fog that
does develops.

5H tough axis slips across the Ohio river valley with a modest
subsidence inversion setting up tonight. This should lead to a
repeat of early morning fog development during the early morning
hours Thursday with little to no chances for precipitation
development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

High pressure pivoting from Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic
provides another nice day for most on Thursday. The only caveat
is that southeasterly/easterly flow induced by the surface high
pressure system may produce a few scattered rain showers or
storms across higher terrain in SW VA and perhaps extreme
southern WV given the uptick in moisture and low-level
convergence.

Winds continue to pivot from easterly to southerly through
Thursday night into Friday, increasing moisture, clouds, and
temperatures ahead of the next system. Expect lowland highs in
the mid-80`s with dew points creeping to near 70 degrees Friday.
Scattered afternoon showers and storms will develop in the Mid-
Ohio Valley and increase in coverage Friday night with an
approaching trough. Heavy rain is likely during this period as
PWAT increases th 2" Friday night with plenty of upper-level
support.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...

A surface low stalls out over the Ohio Valley through the
weekend beneath a slow-moving trough, keeping showers and
afternoon storms going right into the next work week. A break
is possible as the surface low eventually fills in Monday/early
Tuesday, however troughing aloft keeps unsettled conditions
into Wednesday, then a stronger front is modeled to move
through and clear the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 625 AM Wednesday...

After river valley fog burns off this morning expect VFR flight
conditions through 06Z. River fog redevelops for Thursday
morning after 06Z. Surface gradients are weak with light flow
expected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Morning river valley fog possible through the end of the work
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/MC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...KMC


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