582
FXUS61 KRLX 130015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
815 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue as a warm and moist airmass remains in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 815 PM Saturday...

Not much to change with the forecast other than keeping PoPs
aligned with current convective activity. Still seeing a few
showers and thunderstorms across the area this evening, but
these cells are remaining below severe criteria. There is a line
of cells to our west that are holding together, but latest CAMs
suggest they will weaken significantly in the next few hours as
heating is lost.

As of 1141 AM Saturday...

The main weather hazard today is the heat and humidity. While
the heat remains below advisory criteria, heat index values will
still reach the upper 90s by the afternoon. Be sure to take
plenty of breaks indoors and stay hydrated today.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected this
afternoon, with a 30-40% probability across the eastern
mountains, northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio based on latest
model runs. Any thunderstorms that develop will have a marginal
chance of flooding downpours and localized damaging winds. The
threat of severe weather remains very low, with little to no
wind shear (0-6 km bulk shear values remain below 20 knots) to
keep thunderstorms organized. Expect any convection to dissipate
quickly after sunset (NBM shows less than 10% probability of
convection after 9 PM local time).

A very slow-moving cold front will approach our southeast Ohio
counties by Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms
developing ahead of it. Models remain in agreement that wind shear
will remain fairly weak ahead of this cold front, with 0-6 km bulk
shear values of only 10-20 kts across the region. Just like recent
days, plenty of afternoon instability will allow for thunderstorms
to build up and then dissipate, with isolated damaging wind gusts
and flooding downpours being the main threats. A marginal risk of
excessive rainfall is being outlooked across the area by WPC. The
threat of flooding will be greatest with any cells that train over
the same areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1141 AM Saturday...

The aforementioned cold front from the near-term discussion will
cross through the state of West Virginia from west to east Monday,
bringing only a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of it. The highest probabilities (around 20%) are expected
across the eastern part of the state in the higher elevations.
The severe threat remains very low, with the latest Storm
Prediction Center outlooks showing less than a 5% chance of
severe weather.

Tuesday should be similar to Monday, with a low (20-40%) chance of
afternoon showers and storms in the mountains. The lowlands should
remain quiet as high pressure takes back control. Temperatures
will rebound back into the lower 90s with more sunshine and less
shower activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1141 AM Saturday...

Confidence is increasing for an unsettled pattern to return
Wednesday through Friday as high pressure shifts eastward, leading
to a southwest wind flow and increasing humidity. The NBM shows a 50-
70% chance of daily showers and thunderstorms during this period,
with the GFS and ECMWF aligning on this general trend. There is some
model disagreement regarding the timing of a late-week cold front,
with the ECMWF suggesting an earlier arrival on Friday, while the
GFS and NBM lean towards a Saturday passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 805 PM Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, but
this activity will wane after ~03z. Restrictions are possible in
and around any showers and thunderstorms.

Fog can be expected overnight at KEKN, which will likely bring
IFR visibility restrictions. CRW, PKB, CKB, and other sites
that receive rainfall could see fog restrictions though not
quite as dense as expected at EKN. Any fog restrictions should
lift by 12-13Z Sunday as it dissipates.

Winds will be light and southwesterly early this evening, but
then become light and variable overnight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary this evening. Fog may be more
dense or occur at other locations than is forecasted.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day through Monday. IFR river valley fog possible during
the overnights.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC