Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 201829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
229 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances could produce showers or storms
through Wednesday. Cold front brings rainfall Thursday. Dry and
cooler this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Sent a quick update to issue a Excessive Heat Advisory for
portions of southeast OH and southeast KY through 6 PM.

As of 205 PM Tuesday...

The area remains under the influence of a surface high pressure, and
an upper level low amplitude trough. Models bring few H500 vorticity
maxes across the area through Wednesday. These short waves will
likely interact with limited moisture to produce scattered
showers or storms. Models suggest a healthy H500 vort max will
move across our northwest sections by 00Z this evening, perhaps
bringing another cluster of storms into southeast OH and
northern WV. Convective activity should diminish in intensity
and coverage later tonight.

Similar low temperatures can be expected tonight, generally in the
upper 60s lowlands, ranging into the low 60s northeast mountains.
With some clouds around, but despite of near calm flow, less river
valley fog can be expected overnight tonight. This could change over
areas that receive rainfall this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather continues on Wednesday, as weak disturbances cross
the area, with isold to sct showers and storms. A few storms could
be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. SPC has
added a marginal risk to the CWA for Wednesday.

A cold front will move into the area Thursday night and Friday, with
continued showers and thunderstorms across the area. Front will be
across southern zones on Friday, with drier weather across northern
zones for the most part.

With the overall warm and humid atmosphere in place, heavy downpours
and localized water issues will be a possibility during the period,
particularly if areas receive repetitive convection.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...

Brief break in the precipitation across most areas over the weekend
with high pressure briefly in control. Showers and storms will still
continue to be a possibility, particularly across the higher terrain
and southern zones, where humidity will be higher in vcnty of front,
just to south of southern zones.

Heat and humidity will be on the increase towards the end of the
week into early next week as the front lifts north across the area
again, along with several disturbances, bringing a return of active
weather to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 136 PM Tuesday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail under surface high
pressure. Diurnal heating aided by mid level vorticity maxes
could produce showers or storms through tonight. Brief IFR
conditions expected along stronger storms.

Models differ on the timing of H500 short wave to affect the
area tonight. The leaning towards the well initialized NAM which
bring a mid level wave affecting portions of southeast OH and WV
including PKB from 00z to 05Z.

Wind will become calm tonight while some clouds pass by. River
valley fog can not be ruled out of the question, although if
any, it should be confined to the deeper river valleys.

VFR conditions will prevail once again Wednesday, with isolated
brief periods of IFR or worst under convection.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location of convection could vary. Areas of
fog could be larger than expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible with showers and storms mid week, stratus and
valley fog redeveloping by Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>008-
     013>016.
OH...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ


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