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000
FXUS61 KRLX 071805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
105 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through the middle of this week with a warming
trend. Next frontal system late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather for tonight and
Monday. Based on MOS guidance performance last night and
Saturday, lowered overnight lows slightly and increased Monday
afternoon highs slightly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

Dry weather with a warming trend will continue with high
pressure, upper level ridging, and southerly flow in place for
the short term period. There may be a bit of a dip in the upper
level ridging on Tuesday which could lead to some cloud cover
building in for the day. Skies should gradually clear back out
Tuesday night before clouds build back in throughout Wednesday
as the next system finally approaches the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

The next chance for precipitation is expected around late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Models continue to show a fair
amount of disagreement with this system and how it will affect
the area. They generally agree in bringing a surface low up
through the Great Lakes with its associated cold front
approaching the region and bringing some rain to the area. Both
the Canadian and ECMWF bring this front through the area Friday,
however the GFS stalls the front and keeps most of the
precipitation chances along the northern half of the area.
Models show an upper level trough to the north of the area
Friday into Saturday, however the ECMWF deepens this trough
farther to the south into the area than the other models.

Models show a wave of moisture moving in behind the front,
however the placement of this moisture over the area differs
between the models with the ECMWF keeping it more to the south
and the GFS more to the north. The Canadian and ECMWF then show
high pressure moving in or to the north, potentially clearing
out any chances for precipitation. The GFS on the other hand
shows a surface low approaching the area from the west into
Sunday bringing additional precipitation chances into the area.

Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with high
temperatures in the 60s for much of the area with some locations
potentially getting up into the 70s, and 50s for the higher
elevations. As the system moves through, temperatures take a
turn towards a cooling trend through the end of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1108 AM Sunday...

Despite a few cumulus clouds in the mountains early this
afternoon, and some mid deck in central Ohio and northern West
Virginia Monday morning, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/CG
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RPY