Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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120
FXUS61 KRLX 231007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
607 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves into the area this afternoon, pushing slowly
southward tonight. The front remains in the vicinity through
Friday. Another quick moving system for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Tuesday...

Models show a cold front pushing into the area from the
northwest this afternoon. NAM is the most aggressive with
creating a line of showers and thunderstorms, while other models
show a more scattered nature along the front. While time of day
would favor development, lots of dry air in place in advance of
the front. Will run a middle of the road solution for now. The
front will slowly push southward tonight, reaching southern WV
by Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

We begin the short term period with a surface boundary stalled
across the southern forecast area...or just south of forecast
area depending on model choice. Regardless of where it is
stalled, this boundary will move back north Wednesday into
Thursday as a wave of low pressure moves along it. Have likely
POPs moving in from the west Thursday as this low approaches,
and maintain higher POPs Thursday night into Friday as the low
passes and pulls a cold front through by around sunrise Friday
morning. POPs will then decrease from west to east Friday as
high pressure moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

A brief dry period is expected Friday night with high pressure
moving through. A quick moving system approaches Saturday
afternoon. GFS and ECMWF differ some on this system, with the
GFS showing a more defined surface feature. Stuck close to the
consensus blend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday night and Sunday. A weak shortwave trough looks to
cross Monday with another chance of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions can be expected this morning.

A cold front will then push into the area from the northwest and
slowly move southward this afternoon and tonight, reaching
southern WV by Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms can
be expected along the front this afternoon and evening, creating
brief IFR conditions. Shower coverage will gradually diminish
late tonight, although low ceilings are possible along the
front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could
vary. Restrictions with thunderstorms will be lower than
prevailing conditions.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR at times in thunderstorms mid to late week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...RPY



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