Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 140228
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1028 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry cold front early Monday, followed by high pressure. Next
cold front crosses midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1025 pm Sunday...

Adjusted for temperatures and dew points converging a bit fast.
Forecast otherwise on track.

As of 810 PM Sunday...

Forecast on track.

As of 145 PM Sunday...

Surface high pressure will gradually shift east of the area
tonight. Temperatures will drop off quickly this evening amid a
clear sky. However, boundary layer winds will be on the increase
with 20-25 kts at H925 progged overnight. This should help to
mitigate frost except in the most protected hollers. While
temperatures may drop into the low to mid 30s across the
Tygart/Greenbrier Valleys, dense fog should negate frost
formation for the most part. Speaking of fog, thinking with
boundary layer winds increasing overnight, dense river valley
fog will be limited to aforementioned mountain valleys and
across deeper river valleys in the Coal Fields.

Weak CAA arrives Monday behind a dry surface front with just
some afternoon cumulus across northern counties. Temperatures
will top out near seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

High pressure slides off to the NE Monday night and Tuesday.
Attention then turns to a low pressure system moving through the
Great Lakes, with a cold front extending south into the lower Ohio
River Valley. Ahead of this system, moisture will be on the increase
late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with relatively mild temperatures
under southerly flow. Have POPs increasing Tuesday night. The cold
front will push through Wednesday morning, with an area of showers.
Could even get a rumble of thunder or two. Expect much colder air to
surge in behind the front, with a steady or even non-diurnal
temperature curve and gusty NW winds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Gusty NW flow and fairly strong cold air advection ongoing to
start the period with 850mb temps dropping below 0C. This could
be cold enough for snow flakes mixing in across the northern
mountain ridges, but moisture depth could limit this. For now,
did include some snow mixing in Wednesday night. High pressure
moves in Thursday into Thursday night leading to frost/freeze
conditions in spots by Friday morning. An upper ridge crosses
Friday into Saturday. This should give a warming trend headed
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 810 PM Sunday...

High pressure will exit overnight, allowing an increase in
boundary layer flow to near 25 kts. This will confine dense fog
to the deeper mountain river valleys, and the deeper river
valleys across southern WV. Have IFR forming at EKN 03Z- 06Z
and thinning and lifting 12Z- 14Z, with VLIFR dense fog most
likely 06Z through 12Z. River fog is likely to form along the
Elk River, but should stay below the runway at CRW.

A dry cold front will cross Monday morning, with little if any
cloud associated with it.

Light south to southwest surface flow overnight into Monday
morning will become west once the front crosses Monday morning,
and remain mostly light, except approaching 10 kts with gusts
15 to 20 kts across NE WV, including CKB and EKN. Light to
moderate southwest flow aloft overnight will become light to
moderate west to southwest on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR or worse fog may develop at CRW/CKB
overnight tonight. Timing of fog formation and dissipation at
EKn may vary. It may dissipate early, depending upon the
strengthening of the boundary layer flow.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 10/14/19
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM


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