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000
FXUS61 KRLX 051813
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
213 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure sails north of the area this afternoon through
Friday, while a series of disturbances move up the Appalachians.
A warm weekend is expected with minimal precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 233 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will prevail with mostly fair weather
conditions through the period. Some showers or storms could develop
along the eastern mountains this afternoon and evening, but they
should be weak. Decrease rainfall activity tonight. River valley fog
is expected to develop once again overnight tonight mainly at EKN,
CRW and BKW during the predawn hours. Any fog will dissipate by 730
am.

Shower activity could increase Thursday afternoon with an upper
level shortwave passage. The bulk of the convection should occur
along the higher elevations, spreading west into central WV.

Central guidance reflects near normal temperatures on balance.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

Upper level troughing lingers over the area Thursday night into
Friday before shifting east out of the region late Friday afternoon.
Will largely be a race between surface heating and the best
vorticity advection exiting east through early afternoon with
regards to any potential shower and thunderstorm formation late
morning into the early afternoon. Based on current guidance, not
expecting much activity on our side of the mountains, but should the
trough exit a bit slower could see a little activity near our
eastern fringes with some updraft organization possible in the
presence of stronger mid-level flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

Broad ridging over the southern US amplifies for the weekend with
building heights and a return to above normal temperatures with
highs across much of the Lowlands in the upper 80s to to near 90 for
the weekend. Subsidence will keep Saturday mainly dry aside from a
slight chance of afternoon showers in the mountains with increasing
chances for Sunday afternoon as ridging begins to break down in
advance of the next approaching wave. Monday looks to be the warmest
day of the week with a marginal uptick in southwesterly flow in
response to the aforementioned wave moves through the Upper Great
Lakes. As the disturbance exits northeast across the Canadian
Maritimes Tuesday, we`ll fall under in the influence of a slow
moving cold front dropping in from the north presenting a better
focus for showers and storms for Tuesday and Wednesday. Given weak
flow, 90th percentile precipitable water values (1.5+ inches), and
ample instability, the main threat with this activity will be slow
moving thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain.

Changes over central guidance focused mainly on diurnal timing
of convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure providing widespread VFR conditions through
the period. The exception will be localized IFR/LIFR visibilities
under dense river valley fog during the predawn hours Thursday
morning. There is a low chance for showers or storms to develop
along the eastern mountains this afternoon and evening. Coded
VCTS at BKW per uncertain if storm can make a direct hit.

Light northwest flow veers to light north and then northeast
tonight. Light southwest aloft this afternoon will turn light
south to southeast tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm may directly
impact BKW or EKN this afternoon or tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Overnight river valley fog may lead to IFR conditions most
nights through the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ