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000
FXUS61 KRLX 242051
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
451 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front lifts north, while upper level disturbances move across
NE KY and SE OH tonight. Cold front pushes through Wednesday.
High pressure with drier weather for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

A sfc inverted trough, evident in Wx charts and theta-e fields,
will lift further north keeping our area in the warm sector.
Models suggest that multiple shortwaves, seen in H500 vorticity
maxima, will move north northwest from central and eastern KY
into OH, including southeast OH, and portions of WV.

From 1.5 to 2 inches have fallen during the last 24 hours across
northeast KY and portions of the Tri-state area.  This
antecedent precipitation have partially saturated soils, and
less Pcpn will be needed to cause flooding issues there.

Models indicate convection firing up across northeast KY and
southeast OH this afternoon and evening. With PWATs around 1.8
inches, showers will likely produce brief heavy downpours. Also
indicated by models is an area of sfc based CAPE reaching 1800
J/Kg and poor deep layered shear across northeast KY this
afternoon. Perhaps, few storms could develop under this
environment to affect the watch area through this evening.
Models also indicate ripples of vorticity maxima at H500
tracking north across northeast KY and southeast OH through
Tuesday. This could serve as the forcing mechanism needed for
additional moderate showers through tonight.

Minor changes to previous temperatures for tonight and Monday,
mainly staying few degrees below normal.

Increased PoPs with areas with categorical PoPs across the west
half of our CWA. Winds will become southerly this afternoon.
Latest temperature guidance is quite similar to previous
forecast and only minor tweaks made to lows tonight and highs
Monday afternoon. However, portions of the southern coalfields
could see warmer temperatures if more sunshine occurs than
thought.

Confident enough to expand and extend previous Ff to include all of
southeast OH, northeast KY and portions of WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 PM Monday...

A cold front will push across the area on Wednesday, bringing
showers and thunderstorms. With the ground so wet from previous
rains, concerned with a flash flooding threat, regardless of
the storms having decent movement. Therefore a flash flood
watch has been extended through Wednesday. There is also some
concern that thunderstorms could contain damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 PM Monday...

Some differences in the models exist for Thursday, with some
holding moisture over southern and eastern portions of the area
and some keeping the area dry. This leads to lower confidence
in the forecast.

Drier air then pushes southward into the area for Friday.

Some moisture may or may not return northward on Saturday. A
cold front then approaches the area from the north Saturday
night or Sunday, providing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This boundary may push back northward as a warm
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Radar imagery shows areas of light showers moving north
northeast from KY into WV. Additional showers with moderate rain
are evident moving from north central KY, northeast towards
southeast OH. There is some consensus among models having
repetitive pcpn across OH, including southeast OH, northeast KY,
and portions of WV. Soils across the region are nearly saturated
due to antecedent pcpn. Models indicate some sfc base CAPE
values reaching 1500 J/Kg just south and southwest of our CWA.
Abundant moisture as seen in PWATs reaching 2 inches, sfc
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

IFR ceilings at BKW and PKB should lift this afternoon to
MVFR/VFR as a warm front pushes north of the area. However,
conditions will deteriorate to IFR under areas of moderate rain
moving over southeast OH, and portions of WV through tonight.

MVFR conditions are expected across the remainder of the area.
Winds will become southerly by 22Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of pcpn and change of conditions
today into early tonight may vary from forecast. More LIFR and
VLIFR conditions are possible late tonight into Tuesday than
currently forecast.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR at times in showers and thunderstorms
and post rain stratus and fog through at least mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>031.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ