245
FXUS61 KRLX 091745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1245 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers today in the wake of a cold front, then much
colder tonight into the early portion of the new work week, with
the first snowfall of the season Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1238 PM Sunday...

A surface low with an associated cold front will cross the area from
west to east today, bringing brief showers along with it. Then,
behind the surface low, a very strong upper-level low will rotate
southward from Canada into the middle Ohio Valley by Monday,
bringing a blast of arctic air and widespread lake-effect and
upslope snow showers. Breezy conditions will accompany the arctic
cold and snow, dropping `feels like` temperatures into the teens
and 20s during the daytime and the single digits and teens at night.

The first round of light shower activity generally exits this
morning. As winds shift to become more northwesterly and transport
rich moisture into the middle Ohio Valley from the warm Great Lakes,
showers will then return this evening. Rain showers will transition
to snow showers overnight as temperatures plummet into the 20s and
30s. Snow showers will then continue intermittently throughout
Monday, occurring most frequently in the northeast West
Virginia mountains with upslope flow. Convection-allowing models
(CAMS) are suggesting the first round of snow showers will
occur in the morning with another heavier round of snow likely
in the evening.

Snowfall totals are currently expected to be highest over the
northeast West Virginia mountains (especially above 3,500 feet).
Total snowfall is expected to range from 4-7 inches in these
locations. Across the foothills of the mountains, snow will range
from 2-4 inches, and across the lowlands, an inch or two of snow
will be possible. This all may create travel disruptions, especially
in the higher elevations, where the ground is colder and snow may
stick more easily on the roads. Across the lowlands, the ground will
likely be too warm for much snow accumulation on pavement.

Across the mountains, NBM probabilities of snowfall exceeding 2
inches range from 85 to 100 percent, while across the lowlands, the
probabilities range from 50 to 70 percent. The NBM
probabilities of snowfall exceeding 4 inches remains high across
the northeast mountains, ranging from 70 to 90 percent. The NBM
probabilities of snowfall exceeding 6 inches is still decent
across the northeast mountains, ranging from 50 to 70 percent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1238 PM Sunday...

Snowfall should gradually diminish areawide by Tuesday morning as
winds shift and become west-southwesterly, cutting off the moisture
supply from the Great Lakes. Very cold temperatures will linger
throughout the day with highs only in the 20s and 30s in the
mountains and the lower 40s in the lowlands.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Wednesday as the upper-level low
pulls away into the Atlantic and ridging returns over the middle
Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1238 PM Sunday...

The long-term forecast period generally looks dry across our area
with a gradual warming trend heading into next weekend. By Saturday
and Sunday, model disagreement increases with some uncertainty
regarding the placement and evolution of the next broad upper-level
trough across the central U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1243 PM Sunday...

MVFR and IFR stratus will be scattered to widespread today with
intermittent rain showers, which can briefly also reduce VISBYs.
Winds will gradually become more westerly to west-northwesterly
by 00Z this evening in the wake of a cold front. Winds will
occasionally gust 15-25 kts overnight and throughout Monday.

IFR low stratus will become more widespread this evening,
beginning at 00Z. In addition, rain and/or snow showers will be
likely early Monday morning, and this will continue throughout
most of the day. Expect MVFR and IFR restrictions the entire day
with low stratus and intermittent snow showers.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of restrictions in low
stratus and snow showers may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Monday into Monday night in occasional
snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ013-015-016-018-020-024>034-039-040-
     515>521-525.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26