105
FXUS61 KRLX 210001
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
801 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain snow showers tonight. Brief dry period on Friday.
Additional rounds of showers over the weekend into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 801 PM Thursday...

Minimal changes were made in this evening`s update, but PoPs
were tweaked to reflect radar trends. Rain/Snow showers should
gradually diminish in the mountains by 12Z Friday morning, and
dry weather will return. Afternoon minimum RHs are expected to
be in the lower 20s areawide Friday afternoon. This, in
combination with breezy winds, can still elevate the fire
threat.

As of 330 PM Thursday...

An upper trough is in the process of pivoting through the region
this afternoon. While much of the area is dry currently, the
chance for SCT light rain showers will return late afternoon
and evening, then becoming more confined to the mountains
overnight with a transition to snow showers there. Precipitation
amounts will generally remain on the light side, but given an
upslope component and some added moisture from the lakes, light
snow accumulations are possible tonight, mainly at 3,000ft and
above, particularly across the northern mountains. 1 to 3 inches
are expected there, with isolated totals up to 4 inches not out
of the question at the highest mountain elevations. Additionally,
gusty conditions will persist there, with a Wind Advisory in
effect for portions of Pocahontas and Randolph counties from 8
PM tonight until 8 AM Friday for wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.
Given the above, did issue an SPS across portions of the
northern mountains to highlight the snow potential. Given recent
warm weather, impacts should generally be on the lower side.
ISO snow showers are possible across the lowlands overnight,
but no accumulations are expected. Breezy conditions across the
lowlands will diminish overnight.

Building high pressure provides dry weather on Friday amid
clearing skies. Decent mixing should allow for drier air aloft
to mix down to the surface. Given such, did lower dew points
and bump up high temperatures from central guidance slightly,
resulting in minimum afternoon RH values in the 20 to 30 percent
range, with breezes of 15 to 20 mph possible. Given a wetting
rain today across much of the area, do not anticipate noteworthy
impacts in terms of fire weather.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s across the CWA, with
mid to upper 50s across the lowlands for highs on Friday, while
40s to low 50s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Thursday...

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the area mainly dry
and above seasonable as far as temperatures are concerned. There is
a clipper type system that will keep low chances of rain showers in
the forecast for the afternoon, but most of the potential activity
will be confined to the northern half of the CWA. After that, the
feature moves out of the region and more quiet weather is expected
for the night and overnight hours into late Sunday morning. There
will be some frost potential at night as skies go relatively clear
and winds relax down to calm to light.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM Thursday...

A disturbance is forecast to form just west of our area and will
travel toward us through Sunday morning. This will promote chances
of rain rising to categorical PoPs as the disturbance strengthens
while phasing with another low pressure system coming down the
pipeline as a clipper. These features turn into one decent sized and
potent system which has a frontal boundary coming through during the
afternoon and evening which will promote potential thunderstorm
activity during the afternoon and evening. A little far out to
determine if there is a severe threat with this one but the activity
will likely take place during the late afternoon into the early
evening. There is a lot of shear and helicity spelling out a
potential set up for stronger cells with the potential for tornadic
activity. We may not have enough instability which will make these
event less significant.

Monday has some potential for wrap around flow causing chances to be
left across the area through Monday. Another potential frost day is
in store overnight Monday into Tuesday with partly cloudy skies,
however winds will be slightly elevated and may negate the frost
development. Models diverge greatly at this point, but all of them
have us under the influence of a broad upper level trough for
Tuesday and Wednesday which will keep decent chances of
precipitation in the forecast with mostly rain across the lowlands
and snow across the highest peaks and ridges of the northeast
mountains. Another night of frost potential in certain areas west of
the Ohio River has potential to develop on Thursday morning.

Since models diverge greatly with the Canadian calling for high
pressure overhead and the GFS bringing another low pressure system
to the area, decided to go with the blended model solution which
equated to keeping slight chances for the rest of this period and
slightly beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 707 PM Thursday...

Light rain showers are moving through the region this evening
behind a cold front. Some showers are bringing Visby down to
MVFR, and ceilings are also hovering around MVFR thresholds.
These showers will end west to east between 06-12Z Friday
morning. Ceilings will also improve to VFR conditions everywhere
by 12Z or shortly after. However, MVFR may linger a little
longer in the mountains. VFR is expected for Friday.

Northwest winds will remain breezy through the entire period in
the mountains with occasional gusts 20-30 kts. Winds will
diminish overnight in the lowlands, but will then increase again
Friday afternoon.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of CIG restrictions could vary from
the forecast. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions could occur with
rain/snow showers through tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/21/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/GW
NEAR TERM...GW/JMC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...GW/JMC