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000
FXUS61 KRLX 042333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
733 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains dry weather through tonight, as it
drifts east. Cold front crosses Friday. Much cooler this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 719 PM Wednesday...

Forecast remains mostly on track. Freshened up the PoPs, dew
points, and temperatures with the latest NBM to reflect current
obs and guidance.

As of 110 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure slides east and upper level ridge stays
overhead to keep dry weather conditions through tonight. With mostly
clear skies, calm flow and river water temperatures in the mid 60s
to lower 70s, dense river valley fog will likely develop, although
it may be less widespread than this morning due to increasing
southwest flow aloft.

Clouds will increase late tonight as the cold front approaches
from the west. Winds less than 10 knots will become gusty later
tonight in and near the mountains.

Tonight`s temperatures expected to drop into the upper 50s lowlands,
ranging into the mid 40s northeast mountains. Highs for Thursday
will range from the lower 80s lowlands into the mid 60s higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Friday...

Key Points:

* Friday will be a transition day with a cold front sweeping across
  the region during the late afternoon and evening hours.

* After seeing highs in the 80s much of this week, expect a drastic
  change behind the cold front heading into this weekend with
  temperatures well below normal for early October.

* Scattered showers will accompany the cold front Friday. Winds will
  turn gusty behind the front Saturday.

Prepare for a roller coaster ride of wild temperature swings heading
into this weekend! A strong cold front will arrive Friday, and ahead
of it will be some prefrontal showers. An isolated thunderstorm or
two cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon, but widespread
thunderstorm activity looks unlikely with forecast guidance only
showing MLCAPE values topping out at around 150 J/kg by 18-21Z.
Forecast guidance shows the cold front tracking west to east by
around 21Z Friday to 00Z Saturday. A mostly cloudy sky will
keep temperatures a bit cooler than recent days, despite
southwesterly flow ahead of the front. Friday`s highs are
expected to be in the upper 60s across the mountains and the
lower 70s across the lowlands.

Strong cold air advection will follow the front Friday night with
northwesterly winds sustained anywhere from 10-15 mph across the
region. Expect lows in the 40s areawide, with a few of the highest
elevations reaching the upper 30s.

Cold air advection will persist into Saturday with a gusty day
expected in the mountains. Forecast guidance currently shows wind
gusts reaching 30-35 mph Saturday in the mountains. Winds could
potentially be stronger than this with daytime mixing, so we will
have to closely monitor trends in guidance over the next 24-48
hours. Saturday`s highs will be 20-30 degrees colder than what was
seen earlier this week! Expect highs in the 50s for the lowlands,
but highs in the 40s will be common in the mountains. Most
places should be dry Saturday, but scattered showers will be
possible in some of the mountains, depending on how much low-
level moisture will be available. Clouds may struggle to break
for some sunshine in the mountains with northwest flow behind
the cold front, but some of the lowlands should see intermittent
breaks of sun. Overall, Saturday will certainly look and feel
like Fall!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

* "Conversational" snowflakes remain possible in the highest
  elevations of the mountains late Saturday night into Sunday
  morning. If any snow ends up falling, there should be little to no
  accumulation, given the very warm ground temperatures.

* Fall-like weather will continue into the start of the new work
  week. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal by the middle of
  next week.

Another brisk and chilly night is expected Saturday night areawide
with lows reaching the lower 40s in the lowlands and the 30s in the
mountains. Some of the highest mountain peaks may even drop down to
the freezing mark by Sunday morning. Forecast guidance is hinting at
the potential for a few "conversational" snowflakes Sunday morning
in the highest elevations of the mountains. This will depend on the
amount of low-level moisture in place. Some models show a patch of
dry air moving back over the mountains by Sunday morning, which
would limit the potential for any precipitation. Any snow that does
fall will most likely melt on contact with warm ground temperatures,
especially on pavement. Sunday will be similar to Saturday with
gusty winds in the mountains. Highs will range from the mid-to-upper
40s in the mountains and the low-to-mid 50s in the lowlands.

The cool stretch of weather will continue into the start of the new
work week with an upper-level low holding steady over the Great
Lakes. Expect dry weather for Monday with highs around 10-15 degrees
below average for early October. Subtle ridging from the southwest
on Wednesday will bring temperatures a little closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 725 PM Wednesday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through tonight. The exception
will be at EKN, CKB, PKB, in the vicinity of CRW and other terminals
near river valleys that can experience dense fog during the
predawn hours Thursday morning. Any dense fog will dissipate
by ~13Z, expect at EKN where conditions may remain at least IFR
through ~14Z Thursday morning.

High clouds will gradually lower as a cold front approaches
from the west Thursday night.

Light southerly wind increases tonight to around 10 knots.
Decoupling tonight will allow near calm winds at the surface,
mainly across the lowlands. Light southerly winds aloft
increase to around 10 knots tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of dense
fog may vary from forecast tonight. Timing of improvement to VFR
may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog at EKN Friday
morning. Gusty showers Friday afternoon may lead to occasional
IFR in some terminals.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC