Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 241341
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
941 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving storm system approaches with rain lingering through
midweek. Southern system may graze the area late Thursday into
Friday. Cold front Friday night or Saturday. High Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM Tuesday...Made some minor changes to temperatures
over the next few hours, as the clouds and rain have kept them
from warming too much so far this morning. Other than that, the
forecast remains on track.

As of 650 AM Tuesday...

Increased pops across the north today for basically ace probs. I
also beefed up QPF per latest model runs.

As of 200 AM Tuesday...

I`ve allowed the wind advisory to expire on time as winds have
been below criteria. Having said that, I still expect some
decent gusts into mid morning given the stout LLJ in place. I
issued an SPS to highlight this in the areas that were
previously in the advisory.

The slow moving upper level low will continue to pivot toward
the area today, passing just south of the area tonight. Bands of
showers will continue to be the rule as a result. I included
some thunder across southwest Virginia this afternoon, though
instability is meager. Highs were nudged toward a cooler
consensus across southeast Ohio, with the mildest readings
likely in our banana belt region along the westward facing
slopes, courtesy of strong southeast downsloping flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Showers will tapper off by late Wednesday as the upper low
moves off to the east.

Considerable differences exists with the next system late
Thursday into Friday. GFS is much further north than other
models and would require much higher pops. With other models in
relatively decent agreement, will discount the GFS for now, but
will need to keep an eye on this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Models showing a cold front or two for Friday night and
Saturday. While models agree on the general pattern, there are
differences in the timing and amount of moisture available to
the fronts.

A high pressure system will then build in and provide dry
weather for the rest of the weekend and into the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

Upper low will continue to approach the area today, passing
south of the region tonight. This will continue to allow bands
of showers to pivot through the area today. VFR conditions
should hold for the most part today outside of BKW, though some
tempo MVFR vsby was coded up 12 to 15Z in showers. Cigs will
gradually lower later today and this evening across southeast
Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia as the upper
low closes in. This will result in MVFR bases overspreading the
lowland terminals this evening and IFR overnight, though
CKB/EKN likely stiff arming this until very late tonight. BKW
will see their cigs lower into low end MVFR or high end IFR
today, lowering even more so this evening.

Strong southeast flow just off the deck will persist today,
resulting in 20 to 25 kt surface winds at EKN/BKW with gusts to
35 kts at times. Elsewhere, winds will be significantly less,
thanks in part to a more stable boundary layer.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions will likely
vary from current forecast tomorrow.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    M    M    L    M    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    M    L    M    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Tuesday night in light to moderate
rain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...MPK/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30



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