Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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513 FXUS64 KTSA 252331 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 631 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight ) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Severe weather...possibly significant...is expected to spread into portions of eastern OK this evening. Scattered supercells are expected to emerge within the expanding warm sector which will envelope areas from N TX into S KS by early evening. Wind fields will strengthen this evening with forecast hodographs / instability composites supportive of intense storms capable of all severe hazards including strong to potentially violent tornadoes. Overall coverage of storms crossing this favorable environment remain uncertain, but the early ongoing storm initiation across W TX does give credence to the expanding corridor of weakly capped and strongly unstable air that is poised to spread northward. Two to three corridors of favored storm tracks have remained somewhat consistent in short term guidance favoring a zone along the Red River valley and also nearer the OK/KS border. Regardless the exact placement, the background environment will support severe weather through the evening with any storms crossing the forecast area. Overnight, a transition in storm mode appears likely with general consensus in an expanding storm complex across SE OK which may expand southward into the overnight hours raising severe potential across NW AR. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Thunderstorms are expected to have waned and / or focused more east of the local region by early Sunday. However, the cold front associated with the passing wave will not clear western AR and SE OK until late afternoon and conditions will become increasingly unstable ahead of the boundary. Veered low level winds will limit frontal convergence and overall storm coverage is likely to be low, however at least isolated storms are possible along the boundary by mid to late afternoon before the front clears the forecast area to the east and south. Otherwise, dry weather and warm weather will prevail west of the front. Sfc high pressure builds across the region Monday providing a pleasant day area wide. The pattern transitions toward more northwesterly flow through the southern Plains by Tuesday with daily thunderstorm complexes likely to develop and track in or near the forecast area from Tuesday night through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and at least a limited risk of severe weather would accompany these events. By late week into next weekend the pattern reverts to more southwesterly flow aloft and likely remains unsettled with daily thunderstorm chances continuing. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The main focus this TAF period is to time potential for storm impacts at the TAF sites this evening and overnight. Per latest HRRR and WoFS, TEMPO groups were used where probs were greater for storm impacts near the KS/MO borders. This would include the KBVO, KXNA and KROG TAF sites. Storm potential was also higher at KMLC per model data, so a TEMPO was used there also. There may also be a period of MVFR cigs as well during the overnight. A front will push thru on Sunday, with conditions at all sites returning to VFR with gusty winds veering to the W/SW. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 89 62 87 / 40 0 0 0 FSM 73 91 66 89 / 40 20 20 0 MLC 72 91 64 89 / 40 0 10 0 BVO 67 88 58 86 / 50 10 0 0 FYV 69 87 61 85 / 50 20 10 0 BYV 68 88 61 84 / 50 30 10 0 MKO 71 90 62 85 / 40 0 0 0 MIO 67 86 59 83 / 60 10 10 0 F10 71 91 61 86 / 40 0 0 0 HHW 71 89 65 89 / 60 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30