Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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838 FXUS64 KTSA 251550 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1050 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Current forecast for today is on track as moisture continues to return rapidly across the area. Have only made a few adjustments to the forecast for today to better reflect the latest trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A few showers and storms continue across far southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas early this morning as a narrow zone of isentropic ascent focuses over the region. This should weaken and shift east with time this morning with all precip out of the area by sunrise. Attention then turns to the threat of severe weather later this afternoon and tonight across the area. Broad southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains this afternoon with a modestly strong jet streak emanating northeastward from eastern New Mexico into western and north-central Oklahoma by early evening. At the surface, the aforementioned frontal boundary will move back northward during the day today as a surface low deepens across western Kansas, allowing more tropical like moisture to return to eastern Oklahoma by late afternoon. A dryline will extend southward through western Oklahoma and northwest Texas as well. The combined instability and shear parameters in place will support a significant severe risk with any storms that form across western/central Oklahoma and then track eastward into eastern Oklahoma during the evening hours. However, a couple of factors could limit the convective coverage across the risk area... one of those being a pretty substantial capping inversion looks to be in place and even strengthen throughout the day as 850HPa temps are forecast to range from 21-25C by early evening through eastern Oklahoma. Also, deeper moisture return that would help break the cap looks to be mainly confined to a narrow axis across northwest Texas and western Oklahoma near the dryline with more shallow near surface moisture across most of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. All of this will likely limit convection across much of Oklahoma through the afternoon. Mid level height falls will eventually overspread the dryline and the rest of the region by late afternoon. This is when at least isolated thunderstorms are expected to initiate across western and central Oklahoma and track eastward into eastern Oklahoma during the evening hours. The degree of capping and better synoptic forcing being displaced to the north means that storms are expected to remain discreet and may be few and far between. But, given the parameters in place These storms could be significant as they enter eastern Oklahoma, with hail in excess of 2" in diameter, damaging winds and potentially strong tornadoes. Forecast soundings show good low level curvature of the winds, but mid to upper level winds are largely unidirectional which signals possible splitting supercells and more storm interactions as storms mature, likely limiting the significant severe threat somewhat. Increased capping and loss of synoptic support by late evening will mean storms should begin to weaken before they get to northwest Arkansas with less severe threat for those areas. Though a more organized MCS could take shape across Kansas and drop southeastward, clipping parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight, with mainly damaging wind potential. Not everyone will see a storm today, but continue to watch the forecast for updates and be ready to seek shelter if threatened by a storm. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Some showers could linger across far northwest Arkansas SUnday morning, but otherwise the stormy weather should be moving out for a few days. A few storms could develop across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region, with some severe potential. Those storms should quickly shift east of the area with the frontal boundary by Sunday evening. A warm and quiet day is expected for your Memorial Day on Monday, with a break from the active pattern for the first part of the week and mid level ridging builds in overhead. A different type of active pattern looks to take shape however as we head into the middle part of the week. Broad mid level ridging across the southern and western CONUS will set up northwesterly flow aloft over our area through the rest of the week. The set up appears prime for rounds of High PLains afternoon convection organizing into an MCS and moving southeastward into Oklahoma during the overnight hours. Near nightly chances for thunderstorms return to the forecast through the rest of the period, though these MCS`s are hard to predict this far out as far as exact placement and track. But, at least some part of the area will see increased storm chances through the end of the week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Stationary front currently located near a Stigler, Harrison line. Patchy fog will remain possible for the next hour or two, otherwise scattered to broken high based SC expected this morning along and south of stalled boundary. Southerly winds will begin to increase this afternoon. Still the potential for scattered storms to move into eastern Oklahoma this evening, spreading into northwest Arkansas after midnight with brief IFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 72 90 61 / 0 30 10 10 FSM 88 73 92 65 / 0 30 20 10 MLC 87 72 92 64 / 0 30 10 10 BVO 88 68 88 57 / 0 50 10 10 FYV 85 69 88 59 / 0 30 20 10 BYV 85 68 88 60 / 0 40 20 10 MKO 86 71 89 60 / 0 30 10 10 MIO 85 68 87 58 / 0 50 10 10 F10 86 71 91 60 / 0 40 10 10 HHW 85 71 89 66 / 0 40 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...12