528
FXUS64 KTSA 300759
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Clusters of showers/thunderstorms continue this morning well
west of the area across the high Plains. Latest CAMS have been
somewhat inconsistent with storm evolution today. At least scattered
showers/thunderstorms are expected to move and/or develop across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon/evening.
Deep layer shear is expected to remain relatively light (20kts or
less), but with modest afternoon heating a few of these storms
could be marginally severe across eastern Oklahoma with damaging
winds/hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
into Friday as strong mid level wave moves across the region.
Locally heavy rainfall will be likely in the stronger storms.
Depending on how much surface based instability can develop, at
least a limited threat for severe storms will be possible south of
I-40. The heavier precipitation will begin to shift east of
northwest Arkansas Friday evening.

With stronger zonal flow aloft both GFS/ECMWF suggest additional
rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday through
Wednesday with the potential for additional MCS/MCV activity.
Overall QPF amounts will likely remain light in most areas, however
there could be some isolated pockets of heavier rainfall. High
temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly above normal for
the early to middle part of next week, but again this will be
contingent on how much precipitation lingers each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the night. A
complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely move into parts
of eastern Oklahoma by mid morning and could impact those
terminals with MVFR/IFR conditions during any storms. Uncertainty
exists in how the complex will evolve and as such probabilities
of impacting any one terminal are still on the low side (~30%).
Shower/storm chances will shift eastward into the afternoon and
evening, with impact to AR sites possible after 18Z. Otherwise,
light winds and VFR cigs will be the prevailing conditions.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  66  77  63 /  50  70  90  40
FSM   85  67  78  67 /  40  50  80  60
MLC   83  66  79  64 /  50  70  90  40
BVO   82  62  76  60 /  40  80  80  30
FYV   83  63  75  62 /  30  50  80  60
BYV   83  63  73  63 /  20  40  80  70
MKO   81  65  75  63 /  40  70  90  50
MIO   83  64  73  62 /  30  70  80  50
F10   81  64  76  63 /  50  70  90  40
HHW   79  65  78  66 /  50  60  90  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12