404
FXUS64 KTSA 300520
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Earlier showers and thunderstorms have either dissipated or moved
east of the area this evening. Dry weather should prevail for the
rest of the night, with a storm complex from the northwest not
expect to arrive until later Thursday morning. As such, have
removed pops for the rest the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

PoPs to expand Thursday, with the highest PoPs across SE OK as
the storm complex tracks towards the the Red River from the
morning into the afternoon hours. Expect an overall weakening
trend from late afternoon into the evening, but will keep a
broadbrush of chance PoPs in between 00-06z. Will increase
rain/storm chances after 06z Friday as another complex is expected
to develop to the northwest in association with a stronger upper
wave. This complex will track towards the forecast area late
Thursday night into Friday. Once this wave passes to the east
Friday night, much of Saturday should remain dry. A subtle wave
passing through Sunday may result in isolated to widely scattered
activity, so will carry low end PoPs at this time for the end of
the weekend.

Overall, the active pattern continues into next week, though some
medium range solutions suggest weak, but somewhat `dirty` ridging
possibly setting up over the area which may result in lower end
coverage of rain and storms. However, any modest mid level height
rises will be suppressed by a stronger wave that looks to move
through Tuesday night/early Wednesday.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the night. A
complex of showers and thunderstorms will likely move into parts
of eastern Oklahoma by mid morning and could impact those
terminals with MVFR/IFR conditions during any storms. Uncertainty
exists in how the complex will evolve and as such probabilities
of impacting any one terminal are still on the low side (~30%).
Shower/storm chances will shift eastward into the afternoon and
evening, with impact to AR sites possible after 18Z. Otherwise,
light winds and VFR cigs will be the prevailing conditions.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  65  77  64 /  50  70  80  40
FSM   83  67  80  67 /  50  40  80  60
MLC   81  65  78  64 /  60  60  90  50
BVO   81  62  76  61 /  50  80  80  40
FYV   82  65  76  62 /  50  50  80  60
BYV   81  62  75  62 /  50  40  70  60
MKO   79  65  75  64 /  50  60  90  50
MIO   81  64  74  62 /  50  60  80  50
F10   78  65  76  64 /  50  70  90  50
HHW   76  65  76  65 /  60  50  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...04