477
FXUS63 KGLD 191517 AAA
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
917 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for wind gusts up to 65
  mph through about noon.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until about noon with
  whiteout conditions in falling and blowing snow. Additional
  snow accumulations of an inch or less are expected east of
  Highway 83 as the snow departs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

No major updates to the forecast this morning, with minor
adjustments to the PoPs to capture the departure of the snow
this morning. Otherwise, obs and webcams still showing decent
blowing snow for locations near and east of US-83 where the
influence of the falling snow with the winds is creating solid
blizzard conditions. As the snow has come to an end, the
significantly reduced visibilities have become more sporadic
the farther west you get and especially into eastern CO. Debated
ending the CO counties a little early with the recent update,
but with the lingering poor roads and still some BLSN, wanted to
play it safe and keep the warning in place. As the winds
continue to gradually decrease and temperatures slowly warm
above freezing through the day, the BLSN impacts will come to
an end and the current end times of both the Wind and Winter
products looks to be in decent shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Current observations show the surface low moving near South-Central
Kansas with the upper low right above. At the surface, snow has been
falling for the past 3-5 hours with much of the area reported to
have whiteout conditions to 1 mile visibility. The biggest short
term concern is the chance for 6 to 12 inches of snow east of
Highway 83. A band of snow has been over Decatur to Gove counties
for the last few hours while the main band in the west has moved
into this band. As long as these bands shift east as the forecast
suggestions, total snow accumulations should cap at 6 to 10 inches.
If the band lingers in the same spot for the next few hours, snow
accumulations could easily reach 10 to 18 inches. With the lows
seemingly tracking at a decent speed to the east now, I am keeping
to the slightly low totals for now, but will watch closely.

For the morning hours, the low should continue to push off to the
east which will drag the snow and higher winds east as well. This
should cause the blizzard conditions and wind gusts around 60-75 mph
to end from west to east across the area. Even if the snow ends,
caution is advised due to blowing snow near drifted areas. The
overall threat for blowing snow should lower and end through the mid
to late part of the afternoon as wind gusts drop below 40 mph. Highs
are forecast to warm to around 40 for most of the area, with 30s
where the snow is deeper.

Tonight, skies should be clear with the lows well to the east. Winds
should lighten to 10 mph or less as the inversion sets up. They are
forecast to shift to out of the west so I have kept low temperatures
in the low 20s instead of near dewpoint in the upper teens.
Generally, westerly winds keep us a bit warmer, even when relatively
light.

Tomorrow, an upper short wavelength ridge is forecast to move over
the area. Initially, this will keep skies sunny and allow areas
without snow lingering on the ground to warm to near 60. Locales
still with snow will likely struggle to near 40. Behind the ridge
though is another upper trough swinging through the Northern Rockies
that will increase cloud cover across the area with high level
moisture. There is a small chance for some critical fire conditions
in Eastern Colorado tomorrow with RH nearing 15%. Winds will slowly
increase through the day as low pressure builds along the Front
Range, with gusts up to 30 mph forecast.

Thursday night and into Friday, the upper trough is forecast to
swing through the Northern Plains with the surface low moving
through the area. The current forecast has winds increasing on the
backside of the low, but only with gusts of 30-50 mph as the
ensembles do not favor a deep low or one that would linger near the
area. Still this could cause increased fire danger with dry
conditions lingering at the surface. Will need to watch for critical
fire conditions, especially in Eastern Colorado and south of I-70.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Throughout the long-term, we can expect a ridge from the southwest
to build in. This will to generally drier conditions for the period.

Saturday evening into Sunday morning, a Northern Plains trough will
extend its axis down into the CWA. The NBM is giving PoPs around 15-
20, which seems more reasonable than the 30 PoPs it was giving 24-36
hours ago. With a dry layer and no additional moisture expected to
move in ahead of the system, confidence for precipitation remains
low. If precipitation occurred, it would be in the evening and early
overnight hours Saturday.

Sunday could see some gust northwesterly winds as the trough axis
leaves the area. NBM mean is around 30-40 kts maximum gusts in
eastern Colorado while the rest of the CWA will be around 20-30 kts.
Sunday looks to be the coolest day of the period, only warming into
the upper 50s to low 60s. Every other day, we can expect mid 60s to
mid 70s, potentially into the 80s by next Wednesday. These warm
temperature allow minimum RH values to drop into the teens, which
increases fire weather concerns. However, winds look to generally
remain under 20 kts gusts, lowering fire weather concerns
overall.

List of acronyms
NBM - National Blend of Models
RH  - Relative Humidity
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM MDT Wed Mar 19 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... IFR conditions are forecast at both sites
through the first few hours as strong wind gusts around 50 kts,
falling/blowing snow, and ceilings between 800-1500ft are
forecast. The system that is causing the snow to fall is
shifting off to the east, which should end the new snowfall
around 14-15Z. After that, the strong wind gusts around 40-50
kts will continue to cause blowing snow, but likely with 3-6SM
visibility or higher given that a fair amount of the snow is wet
and heavy. After 18Z, winds should begin to slowly lower before
dropping completely to around 10 kts at 00Z. Skies should be
clear after that with winds slowly shifting to out of the west.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
     Blizzard Warning until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     KSZ027-041-042.
CO...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for COZ090>092.
     Blizzard Warning until noon MDT today for COZ090-091.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ092.
NE...High Wind Warning until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     NEZ079>081.
     Blizzard Warning until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK