146
FXUS64 KLUB 191704
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1204 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

 - Windy once again today which combined with the extremely dry
   conditions will lead to yet another day of critical for extreme
   fire danger.

 - Cooler today, with a gradual warming trend through the rest of
   the week despite weak FROPA`s on Friday and Sunday.

 - Daily chances for elevated to critical fire danger each
   afternoon with breezy, dry, and warm conditions through early
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Severe wind gusts were winding down early this morning across the
region and the high wind warning was allowed to expire a couple
hours early. This powerful storm system will continue to pull away
from the region today but strong winds will remain through much of
the day. The height gradient aloft and surface pressure gradient
will continue to relax early this morning as this system moves
farther away from the region. A relative lull in the winds will
occur before sunrise as the lower atmosphere attempts but fails to
decouple. Strong winds aloft in the lower atmosphere will quickly
mix down to the surface again increasing winds. A cold front will
move through around sunrise or just before daybreak bringing strong
pressure rises through the day today. This will keep winds up
through the day and into advisory criteria. Winds will finally
decrease late this afternoon into the early evening as surface
ridging builds into the area. Temperatures will be significantly
cooler today after record temperatures yesterday following the
morning cold front. Daytime temperatures will be on the order of
five to ten degrees below seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

A wave train pattern will remain in place through Sunday; however
much quieter weather will return to the region with the main theme
being daily chances for elevated to critical fire weather concerns.
By Thursday morning, the upper level trough will depart east with
shortwave ridging moving overhead of the FA, before an additional
shortwave trough scoots through the Southern Plains on Friday then
once again through the Central Plains on Sunday.

At the surface, high pressure will eject east, allowing for lee
surface troughing to develop and influence breezy southwest winds in
addition to slightly warmer temperatures over most of the Caprock
Thursday afternoon. This warming trend will continue through
Saturday, with gradual increase in temperatures into the 70s on
Friday, despite a weak front moving through Friday morning, and into
the 80s on Saturday as we see winds shift out of the southwest once
again as a surface trough re-develops in the lee of the Rockies. A
short lived break in the warmer temperatures occurs on Sunday, as an
upper level low translating through the Great Lakes region Sunday
swings a front through the FA. This front will also be weak, but
will drop temperatures a few degrees compared to previous days.
Thereafter, long-wave ridging will take hold of the region with warm
and dry conditions continuing into next week. Although wind speeds
will remain on the lighter side through much of the extended,
critically dry conditions are expected with minimum RH values in the
single digits to mid teens through the extended. This with the
gradual warming trend will lead to daily chances of at least elevated
fire weather concerns, and critical fire weather concerns on days
with breezier winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Strong north to northwest winds will continue through this
evening. Winds will lighten late this evening and remain through
the night. Possible reduction in visibility from patchy blowing
dust remains through this evening otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...10