Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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759 FXUS63 KAPX 111652 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1252 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chances for showers tonight. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Some severe storm potential. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Inherited forecast looks to be in good shape with mostly sunny skies and light winds today. Higher level clouds will begin to fill in later this evening into tonight giving way to slight chances for light rain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Canada originated high pressure and its attendant light winds, clear skies, and dry air has resulted in quite the cool night across northern Michigan, with several of our traditional colder interior locations already making a run into the 30s. Driver behind this surface high is sharp mid/upper level ridge building steadily east into the western Great Lakes...with troughing quick on its heels across the northern Plains into the prairie lands of southern Canada. Cold front right on this ridge/trough interface sliding east into the upper Mississippi Valley...with just enough attendant forcing and moisture advection to kick off an area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms along it. Overall flow regime remains rather progressive, with mid level ridging building through and east of northern Michigan today and tonight, with upstream shortwave trough and its weakening cold front moving into the western Great Lakes tonight. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and addressing any light shower potential tonight. Details: Expect temperatures to rebound quickly this morning, with plenty of sunshine and developing light return flow. Increasing high clouds will begin to filter out the sunshine some this afternoon, but still expecting afternoon temperatures to approach more normal levels in the lower and middle 70s. While clouds will continue to increase heading through tonight, the threat for showers is much less certain. Decaying forcing through the vertical (cold front essentially begins to wash out, with best mid level support detaching east of the front with time), and steady loss of deep layer moisture convergence definitely negates any widespread and organized shower activity. Suppose some widely scattered and light showers remain possible, but definitely feel most of the night and much of the area will remain dry. Definitely a milder night, with those clouds and maintenance of light south winds only allowing temperatures to drop into the lower and middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Any lingering rain chances will be continuing east and exiting the state Wednesday morning. Skies will be clearing throughout the day. Light winds and warm temperatures Wednesday. A surface low over southern Ontario CA will be moving over Lk Superior later Wednesday, giving way to some rain chances over eastern upper (and possibly a few lightning strikes). Decent low level moisture will advect in from the west early Thursday, increasing surface dew points into the 60s. Thursday will likely feel like a warm and humid day. Generally zonal flow aloft with an with a shortwave passing to the north. Shower and storm chances exist for the afternoon and evening hours. Possible post-frontal rain for Friday, as temperatures cool 5 to 10 degrees. Drying and warming trend for the weekend, with temperatures possibly reaching into the 90s for northern lower by early next week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: There are a few areas of uncertainty for Thursday`s storm potential. Run to run consistency has been better for storms forming over southern MN, however slight differences exist for the surface feature over southern Ontario CA. The latest 00Z run wants to strengthen the surface low over south central Ontario and move a cold front through from the north/northeast Thursday afternoon/evening. Global models also depict slight differences in the path of the upper level shortwave. Lastly, there are differences in timing of the surface front (some guidance moves it through later Thursday). More confidence lies in the moisture availability and having at least some present shear in the environment. Model soundings depict a defined warm nose around 3- 4 kft as well, which would make most of the instability conditional (more requiring a boundary to give it lift). We will continue to watch how guidance trends (especially once CAMs start to resolve this timeframe). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Clouds will gradually fill in west to east and lower later this afternoon/evening. Trends support most of northern Michigan will stay VFR, but there is a slight chance MVFR conditions could make their way into EUP tonight. Small chances for light showers tonight, but overall coverage and intensity will be minimal. Light winds through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...NSC SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...NSC