021
FXUS63 KMPX 190810
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant stretch with temperatures in the 70s today and
  tomorrow. Chance (30-50%) for scattered showers tomorrow.

- Next chance for widespread rain arrives Friday into the
  weekend with an additional 1-3" possible for most.

- Upper-level pattern settles into a more summer-like regime,
  with less frequent activity heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The cold front has made its way east, leaving behind cooler
temperatures and slightly drier conditions for today. Mostly cloudy
conditions will stick around, but you could start to see some peeks
of the sun as the low-level clouds scatter out throughout the
morning. We`ll also likely be rain free for the first time since
last Friday - enjoy it while it lasts!

The upper-level ridge pattern will persist over the eastern CONUS,
which has continued to prevent any passing fronts from making it
much farther than Milwaukee, WI. As such, we`ll see a northwards
surge of the boundary that sets up across Iowa and northern
Illinois, bringing additional chances for rain tomorrow night
through Saturday. When it is all said and done, an additional
1-3" of rain is likely for most locations, and 4"+ still
possible where any training of storms sets up.

Tomorrow`s setup presents some of that uncertainty for QPF, as
the Euro looks to drop 0.5"+ across the area while the GFS and
Canadian ensembles keep the area dry for the most part.
Showers/storms will look to develop along the nose of a 40-45kt
LLJ, which varies in placement across models. The Euro orients
it bit more east towards southern MN, owing to it`s higher
rainfall totals.

Tomorrow night into Friday there is better agreement that a
broad line of showers and storms will develop along the warm
front that gradually pushes north. The exact location of the
boundary will be key because locally higher QPF is likely as the
storms train over the same area from west to east. Latest
guidance suggests this precip maximum will fall somewhere
stretching from SE Neb up towards the Twin Cities metro, which
coincides with the slight risk (level 2 of 4) on WPC`s ERO for
tomorrow and Friday. The severe potential for storms through
Friday looks to be low, with lackluster mid-level lapse rates
and the greatest instability further south into Iowa.

The upper-level pattern will attempt to settle into a more typical
summer regime as a progressive trough is able to finally usher out
the eastern ridge. This will likely bring one final push of rain
Saturday morning into the afternoon along a west-east frontal
passage. Severe potential looks limited again, but there could
certainly be some thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall
rates. Rivers and streams will likely start to crest late this
weekend, with spots along the Minnesota peaking later into next week.

Early next week should dry out for a bit, with temperatures warming
back up into the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The cold front has pushed its way well into Wisconsin, with the
strongest storms out of the area now. Scattered light showers
will linger for MKT, MSP, RNH, and EAU for the next 1-2 hours,
but should not have much of an aviation impact. Cigs are
primarily MVFR early this morning, with the potential for a few
sites to have some periods of IFR. Areawide improvement to VFR
is likely this afternoon, and should last through early
tomorrow morning. Westerly winds have been steadily decreasing,
and will stay light tomorrow while shifting more NW/N heading
into tonight. Things should stay dry until later tomorrow
morning when our next front moves in from the south.

KMSP...Light showers in the area should not amount to much over
the next couple of hours. Biggest thing throughout this period
will be a gradual improvement to cigs during the late morning /
early afternoon, and relatively light winds (5-10 kts) becoming
more NW during the morning, N through the afternoon, and
eventually NE overnight. Another round of rain is likely heading
into Thursday morning, but confidence is low on exact timing so
have kept mention out of the TAF for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED