744
FXUS61 KRLX 081526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1126 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure advertises dry and pleasant weather today.
Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front.
Mainly dry through the work week with building heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1120 AM Saturday...

No changes needed to the forecast other than updating the sky
cover forecast. Used the latest blend of models as it had the
best representation of current obs, as well as proper timing
with the front for Sunday.

As of 600 AM Saturday...

Included a brief mention in the wx grids of river valley fog
within the southern WV coalfields early this morning. Similar
to yesterday, fog should quickly erode over the next few hours
as the sun continues to rise. Also tweaked temperatures for
valley cold spots this morning, but otherwise the rest of the
forecast remains on track.

As of 100 AM Saturday...

Another dry day is on tap for the start of the weekend with the
aid of nearby high pressure. Clear skies triumph for the
beginning of the period, but we should start to see a canopy of
mid to high level clouds invade from the west early this
afternoon into this evening. This will mark the slow approach of
a disturbance progged for arrival on Sunday. Hi-res guidance
suggests very light shower activity could accompany lowering
ceilings today, but dry air still present near the surface will
mitigate much from reaching the ground until very late tonight
into early Sunday morning.

Cool and comfortable weather is anticipated once again for this
afternoon, with highs extending into the 70s/low 80s and dew
points still down in the 50s. A stronger moisture pull begins
late tonight ahead of the next disturbance, which will yield
rising dew points by the conclusion of the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

A weak cold front arriving Sunday morning will yield mainly light
rain across the region with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across
our southern counties. Precipitation largely clears the region to
the southeast by early Sunday evening. Expected rainfall amounts are
generally between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with this
activity.

In the wake of this activity, northwesterly flow continues aloft
yielding temperatures around 5 degrees below normal for this time of
the year for Monday and Tuesday. Couldn`t completely rule out a
stray shower on Monday as a shortwave transits the base of the long
wave trough overhead, but most locations should remain dry.
Heights begin to rise Tuesday as low amplitude ridging begins to
move into the Lower Ohio Valley with surface temperatures
edging up around a degree or two above Monday`s values. With a
still rather dry airmass and no forcing overhead, expecting a
dry day for all Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Heights continue to build through the end of the work week despite a
rather flat pattern aloft. A modest increase in low level
southwesterly flow will begin to usher some moisture back into the
region with dew points increasing from the lower to mid 50s to lower
60s mid-week and beyond. Temperatures will also be on the rise with
highs approaching 90 across the lowlands by Friday.

Modest low level moisture and weak mid-level lapse rates won`t allow
for much conditional instability, so any afternoon shower coverage
appears isolated at best through at least Thursday. Model consensus
does suggest cold frontal passage Friday or Saturday with at least
some better chances for impactful weather returning to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...

Despite an increase in high cirrus this morning, dry weather and
VFR conditions are anticipated to hold steady through this
evening. Increasing cloud coverage will be observed through the
course of the day ahead of a disturbance pressing in Sunday
morning. A gradual decline in ceiling heights take place as the
TAF period wears on, with MVFR settling into northern terminals
shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. Showers and additional
flight restrictions invade beyond 12z Sunday.

A brief round of coalfield river valley fog this morning, noted
on satellite imagery, will quickly erode today under light to
breezy southwest flow. Flow remains out of the southwest
tonight, becoming more northwesterly Sunday morning in the midst
of a passing cold front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers or thunderstorms Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK