296
FXUS61 KRLX 080634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
234 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure advertises dry and pleasant weather today.
Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front.
Mainly dry through the work week with building heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

Another dry day is on tap for the start of the weekend with the
aid of nearby high pressure. Clear skies triumph for the
beginning of the period, but we should start to see a canopy of
mid to high level clouds invade from the west early this
afternoon into this evening. This will mark the slow approach of
a disturbance progged for arrival on Sunday. Hi-res guidance
suggests very light shower activity could accompany lowering
ceilings today, but dry air still present near the surface will
mitigate much from reaching the ground until very late tonight
into early Sunday morning.

Cool and comfortable weather is anticipated once again for this
afternoon, with highs extending into the 70s/low 80s and dew
points still down in the 50s. A stronger moisture pull begins
late tonight ahead of the next disturbance, which will yield
rising dew points by the conclusion of the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

A weak cold front arriving Sunday morning will yield mainly light
rain across the region with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder across
our southern counties. Precipitation largely clears the region to
the southeast by early Sunday evening. Expected rainfall amounts are
generally between a tenth and a quarter of an inch with this
activity.

In the wake of this activity, northwesterly flow continues aloft
yielding temperatures around 5 degrees below normal for this time of
the year for Monday and Tuesday. Couldn`t completely rule out a
stray shower on Monday as a shortwave transits the base of the long
wave trough overhead, but most locations should remain dry.
Heights begin to rise Tuesday as low amplitude ridging begins to
move into the Lower Ohio Valley with surface temperatures
edging up around a degree or two above Monday`s values. With a
still rather dry airmass and no forcing overhead, expecting a
dry day for all Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Heights continue to build through the end of the work week despite a
rather flat pattern aloft. A modest increase in low level
southwesterly flow will begin to usher some moisture back into the
region with dew points increasing from the lower to mid 50s to lower
60s mid-week and beyond. Temperatures will also be on the rise with
highs approaching 90 across the lowlands by Friday.

Modest low level moisture and weak mid-level lapse rates won`t allow
for much conditional instability, so any afternoon shower coverage
appears isolated at best through at least Thursday. Model consensus
does suggest cold frontal passage Friday or Saturday with at least
some better chances for impactful weather returning to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period under the
establishment of high pressure. High clouds passing through
early this morning will depart eastward, with clear skies then
persisting into early this afternoon. A disturbance arriving
for the end of the weekend will begin to cast lowered ceilings
this evening into the overnight hours, but remaining within VFR
thresholds. Showers encroach shortly after the end of the valid
TAF period.

Breezy low level flow will mitigate fog development early this
morning. Southwest winds prevail through today, becoming
slightly breezy along the higher terrain this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 06/08/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers or thunderstorms Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK