097
FXUS61 KRLX 072234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
634 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and dry tonight and Saturday under high pressure.
Precipitation chances return early Sunday with a cold front,
with pop-up activity continuing into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 142 PM Friday...

Broad surface high pressure builds across the MS/TS valley,
northeast into the OH valley and WV through Saturday. Meanwhile, at
the upper levels, a shortwave crosses from west to east by Saturday
evening. This pattern will bring dry weather conditions with
scattered mid to upper level clouds mainly across the northern
sections tonight and Saturday.

Fresh air in place with dewpoints in the 50s will provide a nice
sunset under mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures. Tonight`s
temperatures will be few degrees below normal, generally in the mid
to low 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s northeast
mountains. Below normal highs are anticipated for Saturday with
temperatures reaching the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging
into the mid 60s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1146 AM Friday...

A quick moving shortwave will affect the area late Saturday night,
early Sunday, with some light shower activity possible, mainly
across far southern zones. Showers and storm chances increase during
the afternoon Sunday, with the arrival/passage of a weak cold front,
combined with diurnal heating. Thunderstorms should generally be
isolated in nature, and severe is not anticipated. Much in the way
of water issues are not anticipated either due to isolated nature
and anticipated movement of any storms. A shortwave moving across
the northeast may provide some light/brief shower/storm activity
mainly across the north and east on Monday, but overall drier and
cooler weather will take hold with surface high pressure building
in, and northwesterly flow aloft taking hold.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Increasingly warm and humid conditions will take hold for mid week
as upper ridge takes hold across the area. Ridge will break down
towards the end of the period, with unsettled weather returning once
again. Greatest chances for activity look to lie across eastern
zones during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 6306 PM Friday...

VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible at BKW and CRW under showers or storms
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY