994
FXUS61 KRLX 070525
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
125 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier Friday into Saturday under high pressure.
Becoming active for the end of the weekend into next week with
passing disturbances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 125 AM Friday...

A cold front continues to make slow eastward progress through
the forecast area into the Mid-Atlantic early this morning, with
light shower activity still noted along the West Virginia
mountains at the time of writing. Once this last batch of
precipitation wanes and departs the forecast area, dry weather
prevails today under the guise of encroaching high pressure.

Low level pressure gradient tightens overhead late this morning
into the afternoon in the wake of the cold front and ahead of
the establishing surface high. Forecast soundings suggest
northwest winds of 15 to 25 kts during the day, settling back to
lighter thresholds this evening.

Fair weather cumulus deck sprouts this afternoon under a
temperature spread of low to mid 60s along the mountains and mid
to upper 70s for the lowlands. Dew points drop into the 50s
today in the wake of the cold front, relinquishing the area of
muggy conditions for the end of the work week. Cooler
temperatures anticipated for tonight, bottoming out into the 50s
for late tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thursday...

An upper-level low will pass eastward from the Great Lakes to New
England Saturday, but the bulk of the energy will remain well north
of our region. Therefore, we should remain largely dry and sunny
Saturday with temperatures slightly below average for early
June. The air should feel comfortably cool with a northwest wind
in the postfrontal airmass. Another upper- level wave will dive
southward into our region on Sunday, which will reintroduce
thunderstorm chances and mostly cloudy skies for Sunday
afternoon and evening. Once again, Sunday`s highs will be near
to slightly below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thursday...

Daily chances of pop-up thunderstorms will continue Monday and
Tuesday with waves of vorticity flowing along the upper-level
trough. Cooler than average weather will continue Monday and Tuesday
due to lower heights aloft. Another ridge will build in from the
west on Wednesday, which will mark the return of highs in the 80s.
Most places should remain dry Wednesday and Thursday, but a few
pop-up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 AM Friday...

Slow progression of a cold front early this morning has kept
mid to upper level clouds formation across the lowlands into the
northeast WV mountains, with some remnant showers still present
along the higher terrain. Precipitation wanes before dawn this
morning, with dry weather then prevailing through the remainder
of the period. Fog development does not appear favorable this
morning, with a steady breeze still noted at all airfields.

High pressure settling into the Tennessee Valley will establish
influence over the Central Appalachians today, with fair
weather cumulus sprouting in the afternoon.

Post-frontal winds will be breezy this afternoon across all
sites, with gusts on the upwards of 15-25 kts included with this
issuance. Surface winds grow lighter after sunset as the
surface high shifts eastward into the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may attempt to form in the mountain
valleys before sunrise this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 06/07/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK