944
FXUS61 KRLX 061821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cold frontal passage by late afternoon or evening
promotes isolated showers and thunderstorms through midnight.
Cooler and drier Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 217 PM Thursday...

Another cold front arrives this evening promoting afternoon and
evening showers or storms. The environment remains relatively
unstable this evening to sustain showers and weak storms through
midnight. However, any storm could produce a localized downpour and
cause minor flooding issues.

Dry weather conditions follow for the rest of tonight into Friday as
a weak high pressure builds in. Local soundings show very dry air
aloft, perhaps resulting in mostly clear skies late overnight into
Friday. This will allow for dense fog formation due to near calm
winds, clear skies and antecedent precipitation overnight tonight
into Friday morning. However, H850 winds remains about 20 knots.
These winds may produce some ventilation, limiting dense fog over
protected areas and river valleys. Dry weather will prevail on
Friday with widespread VFR conditions under diminishing west northwest
flow.

Tonight`s temperatures will still be warm, around 60 degrees across
the lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains. Highs
on Friday will be not as warm this afternoon. Generally in the upper
70s lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s higher elevations.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thursday...

An upper-level low will pass eastward from the Great Lakes to New
England Saturday, but the bulk of the energy will remain well north
of our region. Therefore, we should remain largely dry and sunny
Saturday with temperatures slightly below average for early
June. The air should feel comfortably cool with a northwest wind
in the postfrontal airmass. Another upper- level wave will dive
southward into our region on Sunday, which will reintroduce
thunderstorm chances and mostly cloudy skies for Sunday
afternoon and evening. Once again, Sunday`s highs will be near
to slightly below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Thursday...

Daily chances of pop-up thunderstorms will continue Monday and
Tuesday with waves of vorticity flowing along the upper-level
trough. Cooler than average weather will continue Monday and Tuesday
due to lower heights aloft. Another ridge will build in from the
west on Wednesday, which will mark the return of highs in the 80s.
Most places should remain dry Wednesday and Thursday, but a few
pop-up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 216 PM Thursday...

Cloudiness diminished considerably as a cold front exited east of
the Appalachians by early this afternoon. The period starts with
widespread VFR conditions under southwest gusty winds up to 20
knots. Expect weak convection triggered by afternoon heating and
available moisture this afternoon, ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front arrives to the Middle Ohio valley around 00Z
tonight, crossing east during the overnight hours. This activity
will likely bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings along the front.

Guidance clears the skies right behind the front, allowing for
radiational cooling and associated dense fog formation. The NAM
shows a good signal for dense fog at least along the river valleys
from 05Z through 12Z Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Winds aloft may be strong enough for
ventilation suppressing dense fog development overnight into
Friday morning. Low stratus may develop along with fog for
IFR/LIFR conditions through 12Z Friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ