644
FXUS61 KRLX 111606
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1206 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Chance for showers and
isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot and muggy to end the
week and start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 610 AM Tuesday...

No changes needed this morning. Patchy fog has developed in the
wake of clearing low level clouds, mainly west of the Ohio
River. This will dissipate in the next couple hours.

As of 120 AM Tuesday...

A quiet pattern is expected through near term as high pressure
slowly slides east. The main concern this morning will be any fog
formation where the low level cloud deck can manage to clear as
surface winds drop to near zero, coverage should be patchy at best.
Generally think this will be limited to the northwestern half of the
forecast area and perhaps some more fog prone river valleys across
the south.

Tonight, as high pressure moves even closer overhead, should see
some better chances for more widespread valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

Dry weather, courtesy of dominating high pressure, prevails
through the forecast period. Height rises will yield a daily
increase in afternoon high temperatures, with some spots in the
lowlands cresting to 90 degrees on Thursday. Coupled with
increasing moisture, humidity levels will also give rise to
muggier conditions for the second half of the work week.

A weak cold front is progged to encroach from the north late
Thursday night into early Friday morning. Light showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder will begin to impede on our
northwestern zones by the conclusion of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures will take hold for
Saturday behind the front. Conditions will become increasingly hot
and humid by the end of the week into early next week, as upper
heights build, and a warm front moves through the region, with dew
points surging across the area, possibly into the upper 60s to lower
70s. This combined with temperatures forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s across the lowlands, particularly on Monday, will result
in heat indices nearing 100. In addition, shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to increase across the area during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM Tuesday...

BKN-OVC 025-035 ceilings slowly work their way out of the
forecast area to the east by late morning with mainly clear
skies expected thereafter. Light winds and clear skies overnight
will yield valley fog.

Winds remain light, favoring a northerly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight tonight could be more dense
than currently advertised.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP