485
FXUS61 KRLX 111026
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
626 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Hot temperatures
expected for the end of the week. Chance for showers and
isolated storms on Friday. Remaining hot and muggy this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 610 AM Tuesday...

No changes needed this morning. Patchy fog has developed in the
wake of clearing low level clouds, mainly west of the Ohio
River. This will dissipate in the next couple hours.

As of 120 AM Tuesday...

A quiet pattern is expected through near term as high pressure
slowly slides east. The main concern this morning will be any fog
formation where the low level cloud deck can manage to clear as
surface winds drop to near zero, coverage should be patchy at best.
Generally think this will be limited to the northwestern half of the
forecast area and perhaps some more fog prone river valleys across
the south.

Tonight, as high pressure moves even closer overhead, should see
some better chances for more widespread valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

Dry weather, courtesy of dominating high pressure, prevails
through the forecast period. Height rises will yield a daily
increase in afternoon high temperatures, with some spots in the
lowlands cresting to 90 degrees on Thursday. Coupled with
increasing moisture, humidity levels will also give rise to
muggier conditions for the second half of the work week.

A weak cold front is progged to encroach from the north late
Thursday night into early Friday morning. Light showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder will begin to impede on our
northwestern zones by the conclusion of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

Aforementioned cold front continues a southward progression,
albeit at a sluggish pace, on Friday. Shower and storm chances
remain confined to areas north of the I-64 corridor Friday
afternoon, with lower potential down in the coalfields as the
front completes its passage late Friday night into the start of
the weekend. Robust high pressure across the Great Lakes region
will supply enough subsidence over the forecast area to mitigate
precipitation chances through the majority of the weekend. A
warm front lifts up from the Tennessee Valley late in the period
and may impose light shower/storm activity for Monday.

The bigger story within this forecast period will be the
building heat for Sunday into the start of next week. Upper
level ridging and corresponding height rises embarks on an
eastern journey through the country over the weekend, yielding
the return of hot and muggy conditions in the wake of the cold
front. The hottest temperatures of the season thus far arrive on
Sunday and Monday, with many areas in the Ohio River Valley reaching
the mid 90s both days. The combination of heat and humidity may
give rise to excessive heat index values.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM Tuesday...

BKN-OVC 025-035 ceilings slowly work their way out of the
forecast area to the east by late morning with mainly clear
skies expected thereafter. Light winds and clear skies overnight
will yield valley fog.

Winds remain light, favoring a northerly direction.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight tonight could be more dense
than currently advertised.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JP