Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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012 FXUS61 KRLX 110629 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 229 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Hot temperatures expected for the end of the week. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Remaining hot and muggy this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 120 AM Tuesday... A quiet pattern is expected through near term as high pressure slowly slides east. The main concern this morning will be any fog formation where the low level cloud deck can manage to clear as surface winds drop to near zero, coverage should be patchy at best. Generally think this will be limited to the northwestern half of the forecast area and perhaps some more fog prone river valleys across the south. Tonight, as high pressure moves even closer overhead, should see some better chances for more widespread valley fog. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 AM Tuesday... Dry weather, courtesy of dominating high pressure, prevails through the forecast period. Height rises will yield a daily increase in afternoon high temperatures, with some spots in the lowlands cresting to 90 degrees on Thursday. Coupled with increasing moisture, humidity levels will also give rise to muggier conditions for the second half of the work week. A weak cold front is progged to encroach from the north late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Light showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will begin to impede on our northwestern zones by the conclusion of the short term period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 225 AM Tuesday... Aforementioned cold front continues a southward progression, albeit at a sluggish pace, on Friday. Shower and storm chances remain confined to areas north of the I-64 corridor Friday afternoon, with lower potential down in the coalfields as the front completes its passage late Friday night into the start of the weekend. Robust high pressure across the Great Lakes region will supply enough subsidence over the forecast area to mitigate precipitation chances through the majority of the weekend. A warm front lifts up from the Tennessee Valley late in the period and may impose light shower/storm activity for Monday. The bigger story within this forecast period will be the building heat for Sunday into the start of next week. Upper level ridging and corresponding height rises embarks on an eastern journey through the country over the weekend, yielding the return of hot and muggy conditions in the wake of the cold front. The hottest temperatures of the season thus far arrive on Sunday and Monday, with many areas in the Ohio River Valley reaching the mid 90s both days. The combination of heat and humidity may give rise to excessive heat index values. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM Tuesday... BKN-OVC 025-035 ceilings slowly work their way southeast this morning. Clearing in their wake coupled with light winds could yield some patchy valley fog, especially near CKB/EKN/CRW this morning. Any fog that does form mixes out through 13Z. Skies progressively clear through the day. Winds remain light, favoring a northerly direction. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of fog may vary from the forecast this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M H M M L H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Valley fog possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MEK NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JP