299
FXUS63 KABR 070946
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected through
tonight. Threat for severe weather is very low. 15-20% chance of
light rain returns Sunday with chances increasing Monday night into
Tuesday (20-35%).

- Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next
week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Warm air advection off a weak Colorado low coupled with shortwaves
in the upper ridge will generate some showers and thunderstorms
mainly south of Hwy 212 this morning. By this evening, the upper
ridge begins to collapse, and more ample shortwave energy moves in
from the north in a digging trough. That will fill in scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the northern and eastern cwa.
Generally, amounts are expected to be light at less than a quarter
inch, and no severe storms are anticipated.

Sfc high pressure builds in for Saturday keeping the area dry
through the afternoon with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins with an upper level
trough crossing the region, bringing a 20-30 percent chance for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Depending on
deterministic model used, the trough may produce robust rainfall, or
remain north of the CWA with dry conditions possible. The latest
rendition of the NBM suggests some pcpn, but a slightly lower
potential. A long wave trough may cross region from west to east
Monday night through Tuesday, with the NBM indicating 20 to 35
percent chance of pcpn.

Weak ridging to nearly zonal flow develops Wednesday through
Thursday with a period of mostly dry conditions with perhaps above
average temperatures. The probability of seeing 85 degrees on
Wednesday and Thursday is 30-80 percent over much of the CWA. The
above average temps may continue into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
overnight and through the day Friday. There is a chance for showers
and a few thunderstorms across south central South Dakota Friday
morning into the early afternoon hours, possibly affecting KPIR.
There will be another chance for some shower activity across the
northern and eastern parts of the area Friday evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise