379
FXUS63 KABR 062038
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
338 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds finally subside this evening and will much lighter on Friday
  compared to the past couple days.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms expected Friday into
  Friday evening. Threat for severe weather is very low. 15-20% chance
  of light rain returns Sunday afternoon with chances increasing
  Monday night into Tuesday (20-40%).

- Above normal temperatures will return Tuesday-Thursday of next
  week, with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Observations across the region are indicating gusts from 45 to 55
mph across the eastern CWA, and even into portions of north central
SD. Expanded the Wind Advisory a couple times earlier today to
account for a more southerly and westerly shift in the highest
speeds. Also receiving a few reports of blowing dust across the
eastern CWA, while also noticing this on a couple web cams across the
region. Dust RGB satellite data also shows the ribbon of dust
stretching from ND southeast through the eastern SD and into
portions of southeast SD and southwest MN. As we head into the
evening hours, winds will subside as surface high pressure
eventually builds in across the area. Fairly good radiational
cooling conditions set up overnight, and combined with the dry air
mass, we should see fairly cool temps in the mid/upper 40s for lows
for many locations.

Models seem to be showing a bit more areal coverage of showers on
Friday as a weak disturbance moves through. Morning activity likely
confined to the western/southwestern CWA in a warm air advection
regime and the passing mid-level disturbance. Then, a second area of
precipitation looks to start late afternoon into the evening across
the northern/eastern CWA with the passage of the surface trough.
HREF paintball output for >40dbz shows these two locations of precip
potential, and the two differing times rather nicely. Instability is
really lacking tomorrow, so just expect general showers or
thundershowers with very low potential for severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Dry weather and overall sunny conditions expected for the start of
the long term as a surface trough moves out and a high settles over
the area. Northwest flow continues aloft with a ridge over the
Intermountain West and trough/mid level low extending from the
Northeastern US southwestward into the upper Midwest. 850mb max
temps for Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday (thanks to
the high) ranging from 8-13C, coolest over the northeastern CWA, and
925mb temps ranging from 16-20C. These temps for Sunday are either
at or a few degrees cooler. Latest NBM 25-75th spread for MaxT is
only 3-4 degrees for Saturday but we see that increase on Sunday to
a 10-12 degree spread. Forecasted highs range in the 70s across the
CWA for the weekend.

Sunday afternoon, this high shifts southeast as a fairly stacked low
swings down from Canada and continues it track southeast over the
Northern Plains into early next week. Latest NBM pops has a 15%
chance of moisture Sunday with pops increasing to 20-40% for Monday
and Tuesday. Few weak thunderstorms are possible.

Behind the system the ridge moves in overhead (differences between
Clusters on the exact amplitude for Day 6/7)and we will see temps
warm up back into the 80s and possibly lower 90s. NBM Prob of
MaxT>90 is 30-50% from north central to south central SD on
Wednesday and 50-70% from ABR to Huron and westward on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. -SHRA/-TSRA
are possible near KPIR Friday morning, so have included a VC
(vicinity) mention at this time.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>011-017>023.

MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...TMT